Why Kansas <em>is</em> No. 2
Lately, among those of us in the blogosphere -- a word, it should be noted, I hate but use for lack of a better one -- there has been a debate about whether Kansas is really deserving of a high ranking.
Many agreed with LD of Corporate Headquarters ... when he said (last week, before the latest Oregon and Oklahoma meltdowns):
In sum, if you are ranking Kansas highly, you must be placing a lot of emphasis on not losing, without regard to how bad or mediocre the opposition is. And if you are placing a lot of emphasis on not losing to bad or mediocre opposition, there are about two dozen other teams who also haven't lost to bad or mediocre opposition (but several of them have played and beaten good or great opposition). ...
But based on the knowledge we have right now of that team, there are reasonable arguments to place the Jayhawks in a poll in the high teens or worse. And if you use resume ranking, there aren't reasonable arguments to place the Jayhawks in the top 3.
Or SMQ when he said (again, last week):
How far can a team's claim as "the best" go when said team hasn't played anything approximating the best opponents? It should be pointed out that Kansas' schedule is not Hawaii's, which is unambiguously the weakest in Division I-A -- unlike the Warriors, Kansas has won its way into the discussion with respectable wins over Big 12 middle-dwellers Colorado, Kansas State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, all of them (with the exception of A&M) winners of at least one game of consequence their own selves. And the Jayhawks will have their day, against Missouri in two weeks, and if they pass that test, the Big 12 Championship the week after that. Once it gets that kind of value on its wall, KU has itself an argument.
But, certainty of a few proud neighbors notwithstanding, not yet. I don't know where Kansas will fall on my BlogPoll ballot Wednesday –- part of this exercise is to parse the merits of all of these teams –- but it will not be one or two.
Some of these critics decided to rank Kansas highly despite their reservations. SMQ bestowed his fifth spot upon the Jayhawks. Brian, who had joined LD’s criticism to a degree, as the Mayor pointed out, also smiled upon KU.
The Mayor on the other hand, did not, dropping Kansas to No. 22 while saying, essentially, "pay no attention to the arrows." (A bit of a cop-out, if you ask me, but that's a matter for another day.) This brought a sharp rebuke from Brian:
Dawg Sports submits an truly awful ballot: Arizona State plummets to #20. Kansas is #22. Cincinnati is #8. Attempted justifications are here and they are rife with contradictions; suffice it to say when you're the only one ranking either ASU or KU outside of the top ten and you put them in the 20s, you are way off base.
Which, in turn, drew a response from the Mayor:
I can understand and respect Saurian Sagacity's position that the lone remaining undefeated B.C.S. conference team should be ranked No. 1 and LD's wholly outcome-based Lebowski rankings, but, as LD cogently argues, if we're going to rank teams using informed subjectivity, why shouldn't we go all the way? If there are more than 20 teams that are undefeated against teams as good as the best team Kansas has faced, why shouldn't we rank all 20 or more of them higher than unaccomplished Kansas?
So the time has come, I believe, for all of us to make our stance clear, as I will do now.
Kansas, by starting off the season 11-0, has earned the No. 2 ranking. And if they run the table -- something I do not rule out -- they should play in the BCS title game.
(Coincidentally, the winner of that game should be recognized as the national champion, and not because I buy into the mass media hype surrounding the event, nor because I am "a shameless huckster, shill or boob." But that, alas, is also a topic for another post, one I should finish soon enough.)
Many of the critics of KU note the lack of a high-quality win by the Jayhawks, and there they have a point. But they also ignore the fact that, unlike all the other contenders, Kansas lacks one or (in more recent days) two losses against mid- or lower-tier teams that drag down some of the other teams.
For example, even before Oklahoma fell to Texas Tech on Saturday, they lost to Colorado -- a team Kansas defeated. (Full disclosure: Until this week, I had the Sooners ahead of the Jayhawks.)
Before losing to Arizona, Oregon fell to Cal in Eugene -- a loss that looks worse and worse as time passes.
Ohio State fell to Illinois, a solid loss, but one that weighs on their resume nonetheless. Missouri also fell to a tough team, Oklahoma, but did so in a convincing game by 10 points.
Kansas' being undefeated should count for something, if for no other reason than the fact that they have no loss pulling on their resume. Granted, this has come against "bad or mediocre opposition," but that's a pretty slender reed to grasp in a year when everyone else has lost to someone, often to someone who would otherwise be considered "bad or mediocre opposition."
This is even more of a logic problem, in my view, for a voter who has said that a team with a win is "objectively better" than a team with a loss. If that is true, then how is a team without a loss not "objectively better" than a team with one?
Remember, this is not Hawaii we're talking about. Kansas has played several teams from a BCS conference. And, comparing apples to apples, its performances in those games have compared favorably to a team that many previously ranked ahead of Kansas, and a team that some still do: Oklahoma.
Oklahoma defeated Baylor 52-21. Kansas also crushed the Bears, 58-10. KU defeated Texas A&M by an 19-11 margin, far closer than Oklahoma’s 42-14 margin. But Kansas won its game against Colorado, 19-14, while the Sooners lost, 27-24. We will see soon enough how the Jayhawks' 43-28 victory over Oklahoma State compares to Oklahoma's margin, and whether Kansas can do better than Oklahoma's 41-31 margin over Missouri.
Even without all that, though, there is something to be said for being undefeated, for never having an off day -- or being better, even on that day, than your competition. For getting good performances every week from your key players -- or having someone else pick them up when that doesn't happen. For overcoming the unlucky bounces, bad calls and injuries that plague every team, every year.
Complaints about the BCS aside -- and I have almost as many as anyone else -- it has shown an incredible knack for sorting itself out in the end. Anyone out there sill think Michigan should have gotten a second shot at Ohio State last year?
So all of this could be a moot point in a couple of weeks, or even a few days.
I do give LSU a slight edge for the enormous caliber of their wins and the extenuating circumstances of their loss -- a narrow defeat in triple overtime on the road.
But, aside from the Bayou Bengals, Kansas has done more than anybody else in the country, and it’s about time we all recognized that fact.
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Comments
Three points, for what they are worth:
- I believe my observation that a team with a win was objectively better than a team with a loss was made at the outset of the season, when everyone was either 1-0 or 0-1. I stated that proposition when explaining why teams such as Tennessee, which I believed would be good but which lost their first game, were not ranked on my next ballot. Obviously, once teams start playing more games, the math changes considerably; if it didn't, any conscientious voter would have to rank Hawaii and Kansas as the top two teams in the country, which would be principled yet absurd.
- The reason I indicated that readers should ignore the arrows was that I did not look at my ballot from the previous week when casting my ballot for that week. Thus, the arrows were coincidental and did not indicate that I had decided to move a particular team up or down from its previous position. This is because, as a resume ranker, I am looking at each team's body of work on a week-to-week basis and the value of previous wins and losses changes as a team's previous opponents win or lose. For instance, Oregon's win over Michigan had different value when the Wolverines were 6-2 than it did when the Maize and Blue were 0-2 and Georgia Tech's season-opening win over Notre Dame appeared more impressive at the time than it has at any point since. The arrows indicate the direction of the change, but they are unimportant because I did not look at the previous week's ballot when compiling the current one.
- I do not necessarily disagree with the proposition that Kansas will have earned a berth in the national championship game if the Jayhawks remain undefeated after facing Missouri and playing in the Big 12 title tilt. By that point, K.U. will have faced and beaten two legitimate opponents. Until that happens, though, they have beaten a Division I-AA opponent, seven Division I-A teams with losing records (including an 0-10 team in F.I.U. and a pair of 3-9 teams in Baylor and Iowa State), and three teams with 6-5 ledgers. The 'Hawks have not faced Oklahoma, Texas, or even Texas Tech, nor have they faced a non-conference opponent tougher than Central Michigan. Yes, they're undefeated. Which of the teams I have ranked ahead of Kansas wouldn't be undefeated against that schedule? (Admittedly, Kansas has played a tougher schedule than Hawaii, which is why I have the Jayhawks ranked ahead of the Warriors.)
As I see it, there are two conscientious ways to rank Kansas: according to the value of the Jayhawks' achievement based solely upon wins and losses or according to the value of their achievement based upon the quality of their opposition. Obviously, I adopt the latter approach, believing that it is far more impressive to have gone 10-1 against a slate as rugged as L.S.U.'s than to have gone 11-0 against a schedule as weak as Kansas's.
If you're going to go solely by record, though, why not submit LD's Lebowski rankings as your ballot? Why not rank undefeated Kansas and Hawaii first and second, then begin ranking the once-beaten teams third, then start with the twice-beaten teams in sequence after that, and so on until 25 spots are filled?
I believe there are principled arguments for ranking Kansas No. 1 or for ranking Kansas No. 21. Ranking them in the top five but not No. 1, frankly, makes no sense to me. Are wins and losses all that matters or is it important which opponents a team has played?
If it's the former, then (as Saurian Sagacity argues) Kansas is the only undefeated team from a B.C.S. conference and, therefore, deserves to be No. 1. If it's the latter, then (as LD argues, I believe persuasively) Kansas deserves to be judged like a team that has beaten the teams it has beaten . . . and every team ranked ahead of the Jayhawks on my ballot has beaten all of the teams on its schedule as weak as or weaker than the toughest team K.U. has faced thus far, so they're as undefeated against lousy teams as Kansas is and they'll be ranked ahead of the Jayhawks until Mark Mangino's squad registers a quality win (which it has the opportunity to do for the first time this weekend).
A voter can't have it both ways, though. Kansas can be No. 1 or they can be No. 21. Ranking them anywhere from second through seventh, though, makes no sense whatsoever.
by T Kyle King on Nov 20, 2007 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
A short reply
- Fair enough. I don't know that I entirely agree, but I see where you're coming from.
- The point I didn't want to make in the post -- because, had I addressed that and SMQ's playoff thoughts, it would have ended up being far too long -- is that the arrows do matter, to an extent, even for a resume voter. There is a direction you're moving a team. If you believe that a team's resume is, for example, the ninth best in the nation one week and the 15th best in the nation the next week, there has to be a justification for it. Otherwise, there's no consistency and you're just ranking based on whimsy. If you drop a team or bump a team up a few spots based on a previous opponent's win or loss, that's fine. But to move a team dramatically -- dropping them by a double-digit margin, for example -- you have to have a pretty good reason to do so. Like you, I start off with a blank sheet every week. But then I compare it to my last poll, to avoid what I would see as logical inconsistency ... and to make sure (in fairness) I don't forget anyone, which almost happened a time or two.
- "Which of the teams I have ranked ahead of Kansas wouldn't be undefeated against that schedule?" No need to go hypothetical, because there's an easy one: Oklahoma, currently 15 spots on your ballot ahead of KU. They lost to Colorado.
As for the "having it both ways" argument, I again see where you're coming from. And I have always said I'm not a straight resume voter until the regular season is over. With me, resumes take on increasing weight as the season goes on. Had Oregon actually gone through the entire season with one loss and LSU had done the same, I eventually would have leaped the Ducks over the Bengals because I think the Pac-10 is as good or just a touch better than the SEC this year. (Heresy, I know.)
But another point is that there is some degree of subjectivity to all of this. You have to admit that no resume ranking is perfect. Two people can look at a team and have two different perspectives on how difficult its schedule has been. I see an undefeated record through 11 games in a BCS league (this is why I omit Hawaii) as something akin to an extra quality win. (Coincidentally, Hawaii peeks back into my Top 25 this week at least in part because they get an edge from being undefeated and having finally beat a couple of teams in Fresno State and Nevada that at least have a pulse.) And I see a loss as something that has to be taken into consideration. When I balance those two, I see reasons for ranking LSU and, if you want, Missouri ahead of the Jayhawks. But no one else.
by cocknfire on Nov 20, 2007 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also on point No. 1...
I never said that a team with a win is "objectively better" than a team without one, because I don't believe that's true. As Brian has pointed out, there has to be some element of projection, at least, at the beginning of the season.
by cocknfire on Nov 20, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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