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Expectations: How Great?

The last post started out in the direction of an expectations post, but changed for a few reasons.

One was that C&F hasn't finished all his preview work yet, and it seems a bit unfair to set expectations before he knows more.

Second, and perhaps more important: What expectations do you mean?

Going into the fourth year of the Spurrier era, the questions have already begun to crop up: Is he still the coach that had so much success at Florida? Can he still win the SEC? Was it ever reasonable to expect him to do it at South Carolina?

Has the game passed him by?

To those fans who would accuse C&F of being unfairly negative, these are not unreasonable questions. Steve Spurrier is 21-16 at South Carolina in three seasons; is that really what you expected?

Yes, the mark is the best for the first three years as Gamecocks head coach since Joe Morrison went 20-14 from 1983-85. (And more consisent; the Man in Black was 5-6, 10-2 and 5-6.) And it marks the first time South Carolina has had three straight winning seasons since a four-year strech from 1987-90 (8-4, 8-4, 6-4-1, 6-5). And Spurrier is so far the first Gamecocks coach with more than one year of service to not have a losing season since Billy Laval (1928-1934) -- who actually had a 5-4-2 mark in 1932.

But is that something to be proud of? Are we willing to cheer because Spurrier has made South Carolina less mediocre?

That's not what we expected. And that's not what Spurrier came here to do.

Undoubtedly, this is an important season for the Gamecocks. If the team can put together an 8-4 or 9-3 regular season -- which looks generous, at this point -- it will restore the positive momentum from the end of 2006. But if the team goes 6-6 or an unimpressive 7-5 (losses to the Big Three, LSU and Clemson; wins against the remaining weak teams), a sense of stagnation could begin to set in.

We won't even talk about the possibility of a losing season.

In college football, momentum is important. Unlike pro sports, where the team chooses the talent, in college talent gets to choose the team. There comes a point, one that might have already arrived, where the players choosing their college destination won't even remember Spurrier's glory days. Students coming out of high school now were in middle school when HBC left Florida.

If Spurrier's records are 7-5, 8-5, 6-6 and 7-5, where is the sense of progress? What, exactly, prompts a blue chip recruit to say, "South Carolina is where I want to play my college ball"?

A couple of hearty folks have already chosen "10-12" in the poll asking how many games South Carolina will win in 2008. C&F wishes he shared their optimism. To do that, the Gamecocks must win all the games in which they'll be favored and lose to two or fewer of the following teams: Georgia, Florida, Tennesee, LSU and Clemson. Possible? Of course. Likely? No.

So what do we expect? Should we expect 8 or 9 wins in 2008, because that's what will mark progress? Or should we expect 6 or 7 wins, because that's what an objective observer might call reasonable based on the depth chart and schedule?

C&F hasn't given up on Spurrier yet. But the dreams of the Gamecocks heading to Atlanta for anything more than the Peach Bowl could begin to fade without a surprising performance this year.

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eight or nine wins...

That’s all I’m asking for. Like you say, if we can beat the teams we ought to beat, and win one or two against UGA, UT, UF, LSU, and CU, we’ll be there. We should be in it against all of those teams with the possible exception of UF. Let’s do it.

by Gamecock Man on Jun 26, 2008 10:50 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

7+ wins

I think expectations are especially hard to measure for this year’s team. I can’t remember a gamecock team in recent memory having so many question marks at the beginning of the season.

On top of the usual question marks (QB play, the O-line, a 2nd receiver) there’s the high probability that at least one of our returning injured stars (JBrink, Captain, Hall, and Pepper) fails to deliver. Add in several new coaches and a lackluster recruiting class that will probably not add much depth, and perhaps, we should lower our expectations to “7 wins, a bowl game, and a decent game vs. the unmentionables from the Upstate)”

by dcGamecock on Jun 27, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The flip side of that is

There are a lot of returning players on this team, so the lack of depth from the recruiting class might not hurt us this year. (Next year might be a different story.) Let’s not forget that Kenny’s back and the defense is absolutely stacked.

But you’re exactly right about the questions. That’s why I’m having trouble deciding whether I fall into your camp or Gamecock Man’s. If things go right, eight or even nine wins is within reach. If they break wrong, seven might be the ceiling.

by cocknfire on Jun 27, 2008 11:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

eternally optimistic...

I always think that we’ll do better than we actually do. The truth is that I could see us winning seven games or less just as well as I could see us winning nine or ten. That’s where we are right now—we’re good enough to win any game on our schedule, so if things start going well for us we could run off a nice win streak. But we’re not so good that we can assume that we’ll beat anyone on our schedule, with the possible exceptions of UAB or Wofford (and we all remember what happened last time Wofford came for a visit). I could see us beating Florida in the Swamp, but I could also see us losing to Vandy again. The team needs to take it one game at a time and beat the teams we need to beat and hope that we can catch some breaks against the elite competition. I think we can do that. If our defense performs up to expectations and doesn’t suffer last year’s injuries, all we’ll need from the offense is consistency and ball protection. Nothing fancy.

by Gamecock Man on Jun 28, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

healthy

That’s the key for the Gamecocks this year, just like it was for the last. If we can stay healthy, with the depth we have on Defense and the talent on Offense, its a 9-10 win season. If not, its a 7-8 win season.

by Charlestowne on Jun 30, 2008 7:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're right...

... this year is a crucible of sorts for Spurrier’s tenure at USC. I’m not sure SOS can ever be placed on the hot seat with a straight face, but this year stretched a lot of Carolina fans’ patience to the breaking point. He will need a minimum of 8 wins to keep them, if not happy, from losing interest in his restoration project.

Honestly, it’s a tough place to win. It’s tough to recruit well with Georgia and Florida to the south, and Tennessee to the north. Coaches in the SEC West range all over the southeast fighting for talent. Even new SEC HC Bobby Petrino has a lot of ties to Spurrier’s recruiting grounds. Butch Davis, a killer recruiter in his own right, owns North Carolina now and with the talent level rising across the board in college football, recruiting is a major challenge no matter how great the tradition of the university you’re working for.

One thing I can tell you from experience is that Spurrier is a competent, fine recruiter. Unfortunately, that’s not nearly going to cut it in the hypercompetitive SEC. “Fine and competent” means middle-tier recruiting classes year in and year out.

I hate to sound like a negative nellie but I think Spurrier’s uphill battle is probably going to get the best of him before he retires.

Orange and Blue Hue: The World through GATOR-colored Glasses -- http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Jul 2, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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