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Kentucky better than South Carolina? You're serious?

I don't really intend to spend too much time on this, having already addressed it here and planning to address it more in the team-specific preview for Kentucky. But the Wildcat faithful continue to chafe at their fourth-place showing in the division, and they seem to be developing a huge inferiority complex with regards to the Gamecocks, leading them to make statements like this:

Man, I want that visor, and I want it this year.  Spurrier has owned us completely.  Yes, we have been close.  No, we have never, ever gotten the job done against the Ol' Ball Coach, and I want that scalp ... errr, visor, on our wall.  South Carolina has to come into Commonwealth this year, and I'm telling you, the Gamecocks are not that tough.  If anybody but the OBC were coaching them, they would be ranked behind us right now. [EMPHASIS C&F's]

I should say quickly that I like Truzenzuzex, who is one of our SEC Power Poll members and generally a nice guy. But this is one boastful statement too many from the UK fans, and I would like to respectfully point out the actual reasons South Carolina is ranked above Kentucky.

First of all, the statement about Spurrier's coaching being the only reason is somewhat confusing. To an extent, any program's value is related to its head coach. All one has to do is look at the difference between Georgia under Ray Goff or Jim Donnan and Georgia under Mark Richt. No one would seriously contend, I don't believe, that most of Goff's teams would beat most of Richt's teams most of the time, but that doesn't in any way cheapen the worth of Richt's teams.

Jdonnan_medium
Why, oh why did Georgia fire this man?

Because the head coach controls recruiting, makes almost all significant football-related hiring decisions and has a hand in most other aspects of the program, in addition to all the gameday decision-making, a college football coach has a tremendous impact on the quality of a program. To say a team wouldn't be ranked where it is if it didn't have a certain coach is ludicrous; one might as well say that a team wouldn't be ranked where it is if it didn't have certain players.

I believe, though, that Tru is talking about perception. Spurrier magically improves the perception of the Gamecocks, therefore if an equal coach with a different name were coaching South Carolina, Kentucky would be ranked higher.

Nonsense.

First, let's review where the teams were last year. Kentucky was bowl-eligible and finished the year with an 8-5 record and was therefore superior to South Carolina, bowl-eligible but jilted in the postseason and owners of a 6-6 record, right?

Not really.

South Carolina was still fouth in the SEC East last year. The Gamecocks and the Wildcats were both 3-5 in the conference and South Carolina held the tiebreaker by virtue of its 38-23 defeat of Kentucky.

The difference in the team's regular-season records came almost entirely in the nonconference arena, where South Carolina played Clemson (ACC, 9-4), North Carolina (ACC, 4-8), Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 3-9) and S.C. State (FCS). Kentucky's slate consisted of Louisville (Big East, 6-6), Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 8-5), Kent State (MAC, 3-9) and Eastern Kentucky (FCS).

It's not at all implausible to think that South Carolina would have likely held a 7-5 record at the end of the regular season had it faced the same schedule as Kentucky. (In fact, it's almost implausible to argue the opposite. Replace South Carolina's one non-conference loss, Clemson, with Louisville or Florida Atlantic, Kentucky's toughest non-SEC foes. Anyone think the Gamecocks' chances against either of those teams aren't significantly better?)

Louissyr_medium
Another one of Louisville's, um, memorable losses.

Kentucky's bowl win was against a Florida State team that had "three dozen" injured or suspended players. The Wildcats won by a touchdown.

This year, they lose 99.09 percent of their passing yards from last year (actual statistic, not an exaggeration), 73.95 percent of their receiving yards and 51.31 percent of their rushing yards. Similar numbers for the Gamecocks are 56.39 percent, 17.69 percent and 69.79 percent.

Kentucky has a QB controversy that is just as bad, or perhaps worse, than South Carolina's -- and with quarterbacks that had far fewer attempts last year than the Gamecocks' contestants.

Kentucky returns eight starters to a defense that allowed 397.15 ypg last year; South Carolina returns 10 starters to a unit that gave up 378.08 ypg.

I'm not saying South Carolina will defeat Kentucky in 2008. We'll know a lot more about that when the time comes, and only for certain after the game is played.

But the idea that Kentucky is easily a superior team, and that only perception is keeping the Gamecocks ahead in the preseason rankings, is one that seems to be held largely (if not exclusively) by the Kentucky faithful. There's a reason for that.

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Well ...

... I’m glad to have provided you with a little fodder for commentary. And good commentary it was, too.

I certainly didn’t mean to suggest Kentucky was “easily a better team” by any means. In fact, I’m not even sure they are better at all, but I think they are, just a little bit.

What I am sure of is that South Carolina gets the “benefit of the doubt” in any kind of close race with Kentucky, primarily because of the presence of Spurrier on the sidelines.

Is that ridiculous? By no means. Spurrier has a 15-game win streak against UK, and that is not meaningless. But in this writer’s humble opinion, it is one of those things that is given far more weight than it should be.

In the end, it cannot be disputed that Kentucky outperformed South Carolina last year. That’s just a fact.

I would disagree with your assessment that Kentucky has a quarterback “controversy.” There is very little, if any, controversy involved—it is simply an effort to find out who will replace Woodson. Every school has this every year or so, and I see nothing at all controversial about it.

Despite losing a significant part of our offense, we return most of the offensive line, which has now become SEC quality, virtually our entire defense, and a substantial part of our running game. All in all, I think this team is actually better on paper this year than last, considering Keenan Burton was injured most of the year. Brooks’ biggest concern from either of the two top contenders at QB is only the deep ball, which neither guy seems to throw with reliable accuracy yet, unlike Woodson.

Still, given the likely improvement in athleticism at the QB position no matter who gets the nod, I don’t think Woodson’s loss will be as bad as many in the SEC seem to suppose. Our wide receiver situation is far more of a question mark, and even then we have at least one reliable returning player there.

I stand by my comment that, pre-season given last year and the losses sustained by both teams, we should have come out ahead, and that Spurrier was the reason we didn’t. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter, though—both USC and Kentucky have to prove their worth on the field.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Truzenzuzex on Aug 4, 2008 8:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not to go round on round here, but...

First of all, I’m not sure Kentucky outperformed South Carolina. They had better statistics against a weaker schedule, no doubt. But I’m not sure that counts as outperforming.

In any case, Kentucky might be stronger than last year. I don’t know. I’m skeptical, but I don’t follow the Wildcats as closely as you do. I do know that South Carolina is also better this year. (Of the departing starters, the only one I weep over is Cory Boyd. I’m almost ready to dance about Blake Mitchell being gone.)

Again, the closest historical parallel to this Kentucky team I can think of is 2002 South Carolina. We were excited because we had finally risen from the bottom of the SEC East. Despite losing all those important pieces to our team, South Carolina was even better on paper. Some preseason prognosticators pointed out that the Gamecocks might be better, but they still weren’t on par with Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, et al.

Pfffft, we said. Old way of thinking, we said.

We went 5-7.

I’m not saying the same thing will happen to Kentucky, because I’m not certain it will. I’m just saying that the third good year is harder than a lot of Kentucky people seem to think.

by cocknfire on Aug 4, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like C&F said...

There’s a reason that only Kentucky fans believe Kentucky is better than South Carolina. I believe we’re ranked 27th in the Coaches Poll; where is Kentucky? South Carolina, while no powerhouse, has consistently out-recruited Kentucky over the past six or seven years. While I don’t put as much stock in recruting rankings as some do, I’m willing to bet that we have better depth. Moreover, Kentucky has not been out-performing South Carolina. Kentucky played a weaker schedule this past year that netted them an extra win, just like C&F said. Plus, South Carolina won the head-to-head matchup. Please excuse me if I think that we will beat the Cats again this year. I’m not saying we will for sure; Kentucky is solid and may surprise. But again, there’s a reason only Kentucky fans believe with certitude that this will happen.

by Gamecock Man on Aug 4, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Brandon...

... is right on this one. I’ve looked at all the teams in-depth. Does Spurrier give the ‘Cocks an edge? Maybe… but I will say this: the ‘Cocks are, on paper at least, clearly better than Kentucky this year. Anyone ranking UK over South Carolina has to be ignoring the obvious.

Orange and Blue Hue: The World through GATOR-colored Glasses -- http://www.orangeandbluehue.com

by Gatorpilot on Aug 5, 2008 3:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

Gatorpilot, you’re losing your edge. Conceding a point in favor of Spurrier and Carolina? I guess there’s a first time for everything!

by Gamecock Man on Aug 5, 2008 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey, Gamecock Man

Could you e-mail me when you get a chance? garnetandblackattack -at- gmail -dot- com

by cocknfire on Aug 5, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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