BlogPoll Ballot, Week 3: I am an idiot

Yes, I am on crack.

So, actually, I'm not. But after seeing my ballot, many of you will think I am. Again, I went through the same procedure as last week:

--Came up with a "back of the envelope" ranking of the teams based on my perceptions;
--Compared that to last week's rankings and adjusted accordingly;
--Built more teams and results into a "resume" spreadsheet;
--Ranked based on the resumes;
--Added the two together.

The one thing I didn't do this week was to "correct" the results by moving teams up or down based on my perceptions. That moved me a bit closer to a straight resume model (and preserved some of the flakier results when compared to our preconceived notions). I did break ties based on the perception ballot; I'll do that by resume next week as I move closer and closer to a straight resume ranking.

Also, to further increase the resume influence, I added a no-exceptions rule: A team had to either have a win against a BCS conference opponent or have win by by at least two TDs over a midmajor opponent to appear on the ballot. No more teams that have simply won ugly against bad opposition.

The product:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Southern Cal	3
2	Missouri	1
3	Oklahoma	2
4	Penn State	2
5	Georgia	4
6	Florida	4
7	East Carolina	1
8	Wisconsin	8
9	Alabama	3
10	Brigham Young	14
11	South Florida	12
12	Wake Forest	1
13	Texas	6
14	Auburn	4
15	North Carolina	11
16	Texas Tech	1
17	Vanderbilt	4
18	Utah	--
19	Oregon	5
20	LSU	5
21	Colorado	4
22	Michigan State	4
23	Notre Dame	3
24	Kansas	2
25	TCU	1

Dropped Out: Ohio State (#9), California (#11), Arizona State (#19), Fresno State (#20).

1. Southern Cal
2. Missouri
3. Oklahoma
4. Penn State
5. Georgia

First of all, a note of caution: I look at Southern Cal and I see them as the best team in the country so far. I do not see them as an unstoppable juggernaut, mostly because Virginia might be the worst BCS-league team in the country. [Washington State protests.--ed Washington State could beat Richmond by more than 16.--C&F Are you sure of that?--ed No, not really.--C&F] Ohio State might be no more than the fourth-best team in the Big Televen when the season is over.

I am sold on the Big XII, as Missouri and Oklahoma's lofty positions suggest. The Tigers slaughtered Nevada, which I still believe to be one of the better WAC teams, and have looked pretty convincing in all their games. They will score at least 45-50 points; your job is to keep up. I'm not sure Oklahoma can, though it's worth noting that the Sooners are averaging 54.7 ppg.

Penn State has likewise obliterated all comers. The opposition hasn't been the best in the world -- Coastal Carolina, Oregon State and Syracuse -- but the biggest question about the Nittany Lions coming into the season was their offense. That's been effectively answered.

And now we get to Georgia. I still believe the spelling-challenged Dawgs will play for it all in January. But this poll is a snapshot, and the snapshot is that Georgia has crushed a midmajor team, handled an FCS team and nearly stumbled against South Carolina. I know from personal experience that the margin of victory against the Gamecocks means nothing for Georgia; it's a challenge for either team to win that game by more than a touchdown. I'm supposed to try to be objective, though, and I saw some troubling signs that the Dawgs could self-destruct if they play again like they played in Columbia. Once Mark Richt gets these things straightened out -- and I expect him to do so quickly -- Georgia should have no trouble rising through the rankings again.

Put another way, I still think Georgia will be No. 1 at the end of the season; they just aren't there yet.

6. Florida
7. East Carolina
8. Wisconsin
9. Alabama
10. BYU

Florida fell because, well, they haven't played very much and don't really have a signature game yet. (And, no, waxing Hawaii does not count as a signature game.) They didn't get any worse, but Southern Cal, Missouri, Oklahoma and Penn State all look better. Oh, and I still think Georgia wins the Cocktail Party. Sorry.

East Carolina benefits from the fact that the Buckeyes did a full face-plant in Los Angeles, meaning just about everybody moves up one. And Tulane might be just a little bit better than we thought; this is the second time they've taken a competent-looking team to the wall.

Wisconsin pummeled a couple of lower-tier foes, then went across the country to Fresno State (which gets you bonus points to begin with) and won there. Alabama once again proves that you're never as good as you look when you win nor as bad as you look when you lose tempt fate against a midmajor. BYU leaps back into the Top 10 after demolishing UCLA to prove that the Washington near-miss was a fluke.

11. South Florida
12. Wake Forest
13. Texas
14. Auburn
15. North Carolina

I am ashamed to admit that I dozed off part of the way through the Kansas-South Florida game, assuming the Jayhawks had the game in hand. I woke up to something quite different and deeply regret it. In any case, the Bulls get credit for a gutsy win.

Wake moves up because teams once above them slipped; this is actually a de facto fall for the Deacons, who should have moved up two or three spots. A bye week will do that to you. Texas slips because of its bye week; there's only so much credit you can get for clobbering Florida Atlantic and pulling away from UTEP.

Auburn slides four spots after one of the ugliest fourth quarters I've ever seen. In fact, the Tigers are probably grateful that their showdown with Mississippi State was lost amid the Southern Cal-Ohio State hype. 3-2? Really? There are Padres-Giants games with higher scores.

North Carolina -- they're baaaaaaaack. Yes, dispensing with Rutgers might end up being just what we've always though dispensing with Rutgers would be. But I'm not there yet. Rutgers could still be a bowl team this year -- emphasis on could -- so the Tarheels get credit for now.

16. Texas Tech
17. Vanderbilt
18. Utah
19. Oregon
20. LSU

I know, I know. Anyone who puts Vanderbilt at No. 17 and ahead of LSU is just asking to be laughed at. But consider: Vandy has defeated Miami (Ohio), South Carolina and Rice, with only the South Carolina game close, while LSU has beaten Appalachian State and North Texas. So, based on what we know right now, Vanderbilt has accomplished more. (By the way, be sure to visit our new SBN colleague Conquer and Prevail for coverage of the Commodores.)

Texas Tech might also be better than where they are now, but that's where they are now. They'll have plenty of opportunities to pick up ground, though probably not until October.

Utah and Oregon are both teams that could be better or worse than this. The Utes beat Michigan in the Big House and have so far cruised through the rest of their schedule, while the Ducks get dinged for struggling with Purdue.

21. Colorado
22. Michigan State
23. Notre Dame
24. Kansas
25. TCU

And this part of the ballot is almost paint-by-number at this point of the season. Colorado has looked okay, I guess, and benefits from the implosion of Arizona State, for one. Michigan State has had a couple of nice wins against cupcakes to compensate for a close loss against Cal, and I don't really see anyone else to put here. (Cal, you can spend a week out of the poll for losing to Maryland. Sheesh.) Notre Dame reappears, though they might not last too far beyond Charlie Weis' knee surgery. Kansas doesn't drop completely out of the poll because their loss was to a high-quality team in a hard-fought game. TCU gets in because there's really no one else left and because they have enough okay wins to look good enough.

With the possible exceptions of Colorado and Kansas, I would be stunned if any of these teams are left in the poll at the end of the season. But that's why they play the games. If they didn't, there's no way Vandy would be 17th.