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BlogPoll Ballot, Week 5: The Bloodbath Begins

Now we get to the first completely resume ballot of the year. Sort of. There's obviously no way for me to completely remove my own biases from the ballot, and there are underlying assumptions even with this ballot. It's still early, and this ballot is still a snapshot.

This does introduce some volatility into the poll, as perception and projection almost completely disappear. So teams getting a pass for a weak schedule because I think they will be good fall; teams I think will have a bad season by the time it's over earn a higher ranking until they actually fail.

But I spent as much time as it took to get this as close to right as I think is possible. There are probably mistakes all over this ballot, and I admit it. Just tell me what I got wrong.

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama 6
2 Oklahoma 3
3 Penn State 5
4 Missouri 2
5 LSU 1
6 Texas 3
7 South Florida 6
8 Georgia 5
9 Southern Cal 8
10 Virginia Tech 11
11 Florida 7
12 Vanderbilt --
13 Auburn 6
14 Boise State 2
15 Brigham Young 1
16 Oregon 9
17 Utah 1
18 Texas Tech 3
19 Wake Forest 8
20 Wisconsin 10
21 California 5
22 Oklahoma State 4
23 Maryland 3
24 Fresno State 2
25 Florida State 1

Dropped Out: Colorado (#17), East Carolina (#20), Michigan State (#22), TCU (#23), Kansas (#24).

1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma
3 Penn State
4 Missouri
5 LSU

Alabama's win over Georgia is probably the most impressive victory of the year, and they hold a slight edge over Oklahoma when it comes to the overall strength of schedule and resume. While the Sooners have been impressive, their best win is against TCU. I can't justify them at No. 1. (And I don't want death threats from Bammers.)

Penn State gets a legitimate win against Illinois and their drumming of Oregon State looks a heck of a lot better now, doesn't it? Missouri falls because of the strength of resume. They need to get some better opponents to move back up. LSU has the win against Auburn, which is souring faster than bond backed by subprime mortgages, and let Mississippi State stay far too close Saturday.

Star-divide

6 Texas
7 South Florida
8 Georgia
9 Southern Cal
10 Virginia Tech

The Longhorns annihilate Arkansas, which ain't worth much but is worth something. Meanwhile, their victory over Rice is beginning to look a bit better. South Florida moves up based on the bloodbath above them and the Bulls getting credit for having a bit better resume than a lot of teams, but I'm not sure six spots isn't a bit too much. Suggestions?

And now the falling losers. First, Georgia. Some blogs I've seen have tried to make it sound like Georgia only really lost one half of this game, or that the comeback that made the final margin better proves this game wasn't as bad as it might have looked. All due respect to these people, some of whom are very smart: Nonsense. I saw much of that game, particularly the second half (when the Gamecocks' game was winding down), and Alabama was going into the dreaded prevent mode. They were willing to allow a few scores as long as Georgia never got close enough to truly threaten, and the spelling-challenged Dawgs never did.

I'd like to say "I told you so" about Southern Cal -- but no, not really. What I saw Thursday night was something I never imagined seeing: Southern Cal's defensive line got dominated. Their run defense was shredded. And that vaunted second half adjustment-making? It didn't do nearly enough to save the Trojans. As Doc Saturday points out, this loss was not "remotely flukey or dismissible," as were the upsets of the past. Oregon State flat-out beat Southern Cal. Eight spots seems fair for now, but the other USC has to get appreciably better quickly to make sure things don't go further south.

Virginia Tech, up 11. Ugh. But the Nebraska win is impressive, several teams above them likewise fall (Wisconsin notable among them), and the Hokies find themselves back in the Top 10. Being an ACC team, they should remedy this situation quickly enough. The Georgia Tech win has aged well and the North Carolina victory looks better with the Heels' win over Miami.

11 Florida
12 Vanderbilt
13 Auburn
14 Boise
15 BYU

Down go the Gators, in part because their loss is not horrible, but not good, either. Mississippi should not have won that game. Florida led 17-7 at the half and had the momentum going in, having scored all their points in the 2nd quarter after Ole Miss scored a touchdown in the first. But the 3rd quarter put the Rebels in front for good, except for a brief tie in the final quarter.

Vanderbilt's victories all look a bit better, but No. 12 is the ceiling for this team for now. A win over Auburn -- which is a distinct possibility, at this point -- could vault them into the Top 10. The end of the world begins in 3...2...1...

Auburn moves up six after having victory handed to them by the ever-so-generous Jonathan Crompton, who is making Tennessee fans long for Erik Ainge. Or even Rick Clausen. But the LSU loss is one of the better ones not suffered by Georgia, and no one else below them has a "wow" win -- though, in fairness, neither does Auburn.

Boise advances a bit; two byes so far leave them with just three games, but one of those is an impressive win against Oregon. In retrospect, I might have been too hard on the Ducks, and the re-evaluation helps the Broncos. BYU down one? The bye further dilutes their resume, which is starting to slip by comparison.

16 Oregon
17 Utah
18 Texas Tech
19 Wake Forest
20 Wisconsin

I'm hesitant about Oregon leaping nine spaces, but I don't have any problem dropping Texas Tech after a bye leaves them with just four wins over blah teams; Wake after they lost to Navy at home; or Wisconsin for folding against Michigan. And while Utah's wins over Michigan and UNLV still look nice enough, the Rebels got knocked by Nevada while the Utes only beat Weber State by 16, so moving them up more than one and over Oregon seems a touch too much.

21 Cal
22 Oklahoma State
23 Maryland
24 Fresno State
25 Florida State

All new or revived entrants to the poll. Cal's loss to Maryland doesn't look so bad now, and their overall resume seems strong enough to me to justify holding them a couple of slots above the Terps. Oklahoma State needs to play someone to move up. Fresno State rebounds to beat UCLA, though looks like it will be an honor shared by many, many teams. Florida State beats Colorado in a fashion suggesting they just might be kinda sorta back. But not like the late 1990s or anything.

Considered
Connecticut, but I still need to see more; Michigan State, which falls because of resume.

0 recs | Comment 4 comments

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There are plenty of bammers...

…drinking the Kool-Aid, but it’s Kool-Aid drinking with a twist. Saban even has the fans more focused than in the past. I’ve seen a lot of comments about “too much hype too early” and “the ranking doesn’t mean anything now” and most importantly, “Let’s just keep the focus on Kentucky.”

by Nico2.0 on Sep 29, 2008 12:19 PM EDT   0 recs

Kentucky...

The Kentucky-Bama game is slightly intriguing to me. Bama should win easily, but Kentucky has literally had weeks to prepare for this game. Me thinks, though, that Bama’s front seven will completely dominate the Wildcats offense.

Go Cocks!

by Gamecock Man on Sep 29, 2008 12:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Yeah, but...

Kentucky will have to score some points. I’m not sure if they’re going to be able to if Bama’s defense plays to its abilities. Unless JP Wilson throws four picks, that is.

Go Cocks!

by Gamecock Man on Sep 29, 2008 1:13 PM EDT   0 recs

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