First off, I admit that this ballot makes almost no sense. I almost have to, because those are some big numbers over to the right there. Penn State, up 10. ECU, up (gulp) 17. Cal, up 15. Texas Tech, down 8. Kansas, down 9. And so on and so forth.
So here's how I put my ballot together:
--I first did what I would normally do at the beginning of the season. I put together a ballot off the top of my head (thinking, of course, about the games of the weekend), then looked at last week's ballot and adjusted accordingly.
--I then created a spreadsheet with 28 credible teams for the ballot, listing both weeks' results, and created a top 25 based purely on accomplishments -- a resume ranking.
--Then, as you would with any poll, I assigned points to each team's place in the top-of-my-head poll and the resume poll. For example, I gave the team that got the top spot in the resume poll (which shall remain nameless) 25 points and added the points it got in the more perception-based poll.
--Finally, in the spirit of making it all make sense -- Brian urges us to use projection and resume early in the season -- and to compensate for the lack of games by Southern Cal or LSU, for example, I tweaked the numbers.
And I got this.
Rank | Team | Delta |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia | -- |
2 | Florida | 1 |
3 | Missouri | 1 |
4 | Southern Cal | -- |
5 | Oklahoma | -- |
6 | Penn State | 10 |
7 | Texas | -- |
8 | East Carolina | 17 |
9 | Ohio State | 3 |
10 | Auburn | 2 |
11 | California | 15 |
12 | Alabama | -- |
13 | Wake Forest | 5 |
14 | Oregon | 3 |
15 | LSU | 5 |
16 | Wisconsin | 2 |
17 | Texas Tech | 8 |
18 | Utah | 4 |
19 | Arizona State | -- |
20 | Fresno State | 4 |
21 | Vanderbilt | 5 |
22 | Kansas | 9 |
23 | South Florida | 2 |
24 | Brigham Young | 4 |
25 | Colorado | 2 |
Dropped Out: West Virginia (#11), North Carolina (#15).
And yes, I fully expect to be dinged up some for this ballot, but it's the most honest effort I can make to remove my own preseason biases while maintaining radio contact with Earth.
The justifications, as much as they can be made:
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Southern Cal
5. Oklahoma
To the Southern Cal lovers: Note that all they have to their name is a 52-7 road win over a Virginia team that could only manage a 16-0 victory over Richmond at home -- and had to score 13 fourth-quarter points to do that. Sorry, that is not nearly enough to justify moving them at all from their preseason position on the ballot. Beat Ohio State and we'll talk.
As for flipping Florida and Missouri, it's all about the resume. Florida demolished Hawaii and ground out a tough win but nonetheless impressive win against Miami. The Tigers beat Illinois by ten -- then Illinois went and allowed 21 points to Eastern Illinois. The only other win Missouri has is a waxing of Southeast Missouri State. Florida by a slim margin.
Oklahoma moves not at all. And then things get weird.
6. Penn State
7. Texas
8. East Carolina
9. Ohio State
10. Auburn
Okay. So this is tough to justify. But here's the best shot.
Penn State has a couple of impressive wins. Sure, there's little difference between a 50-10 win over Coastal Carolina and a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. But then the Nittany Lions went and blasted Oregon State, which is at worst a minimally competent BCS team. And consider this: Penn State has outscored its two opponents by a combined 75-14 in the first half -- they slow down after the half, or the blowouts would be worse.
Texas' two scalps are midmajors, but a solid midmajor in Florida Atlantic that the Longhorns ran off the field and a blah midmajor in UTEP that had homefield advantage and was never really in the game Saturday.
East Carolina has the two most impressive wins on their face, but benefited from a late special-teams play against Virginia Tech (BEAMERBALLBEAMERBALLBEAMERBALL), and I'm still not sure what to make of a West Virginia team that allowed 21 points to Villanova and looked lost against ECU.
Ohio State was on thin ice against Ohio and has done absolutely nothing to distinguish itself on the field, so I don't feel the least bit bad about dropping them. Again, they have a game on Saturday to prove me wrong. Auburn, I feel a bit more bad about, but they haven't really done anything in beating Louisiana-Monroe and Southern Miss that makes them stand out.
11. California
12. Alabama
13. Wake Forest
14. Oregon
15. LSU
California??? At No. 11??? Again, look at what they've done: Two solid wins against BCS teams with allegedly functioning motor skills. And not only did they defeat Michigan State, but they smashed Washington State, 66-3, the kind of margins most teams ring up against FCS or bad midmajor teams.
Alabama stays put at No. 12, which frankly kind of surprises me given an uninspired performance against Tulane, but they can stay there for now.
Wake and Oregon are weird, I'll admit. But Wake handily beat Baylor in Waco and survived what appears to be a much-improved Ole Miss squad. Oregon shellacked a couple of weak teams in Washington and Utah State, but Washington proved its mettle in tying unjustifiably losing to BYU and Utah State is at least an FBS team. LSU's only win is an easy victory over Appalachian State.
16. Wisconsin
17. Texas Tech
18. Utah
19. Arizona State
20. Fresno State
There are a lot of teams here that moved more than I expected. Wisconsin probably should be higher; they slammed two teams, but both midmajors of questionable quality and both at home.
Texas Tech only solidly defeated Nevada, and there's no shame in that -- Nevada is my favorite to win the WAC. But a 16-point win there and a proving-nothing victory over Eastern Washington leaves them with nothing to uphold their lofty ranking, at least for the time.
Utah has at least one quality win to its name (at the Big House) and won again Saturday, while Arizona State posted a blah victory over Northern Arizona and an easy win over Stanford. Fresno State is still riding its victory over Rutgers, but benefits from two teams dropping out and the dips by Kansas, South Florida and BYU.
21. Vanderbilt
22. Kansas
23. South Florida
24. BYU
25. Colorado
No, Vanderbilt is not a homer pick. The Commodores have always had the makings of a quality team, but have also always had the ability to piss away every chance they've ever had at a breakthrough game. The team that beat South Carolina on Thursday night actually appeared to be a football team, and not a gathering of underdogs trying gamely to pull off a win. They also beat a competent midmajor by three touchdowns on the road. They deserve to be ranked.
Kansas at No. 22 might be a surprise for those who know C&F as a Jayhawk booster. And this isn't necessarily a downgrade in what I think KU is capable of doing this year; it is an indication that they have defeated only Florida International and Louisiana Tech, and neither by an overwhelming margin.
South Florida had a chance to make a statement with a resounding win over UCF in Orlando. Instead, they got by the Knights after a tune-up against Tennesse-Martin.
I've made my thoughts on the denouement of the BYU-Washington game pretty clear. However, the most we can say at this point is that the Cougars should have been forced to play overtime; they wouldn't have lost the game if the ref decided to pocket his flag, so they get a reprieve from falling out the poll entirely.
Colorado barely manages to hold on after an uninspiring win over Eastern Washington -- yeah, them again. UCLA, Rutgers, Illinois and North Carolina are among those at the ready if the Buffaloes tumble again.
I watched most of Ohio-Ohio State; switched between Ole Miss-Wake and East Carolina-West Virginia; the watched Miami-Florida with looks at USF-UCF and Texas-UTEP before concentrating on Texas-UTEP once Florida put Miami away.
You can still try to change my mind; a final ballot is not due until Wednesday morning.