South Carolina's prospects for the rest of the year

The Massey Ratings is one of the less heralded computer components of the BCS.  The ratings have a predictor based on games to date, with past predictions frozen as they were at the time the game was played.

I have generally found Massey to be more accurate than the better known Sagarin.  Massey's forecast for S.C. State was Carolina with a 99% chance of winning and an expected outcome of 39.2 to 5.8, which is essentially what the score would have been had our late fumble recovery not been reversed.  Here, according to Massey,  is Carolina's likelihood of winning each remaining game:

vs. Kentucky   79%

at Alabama     22%

vs. Vanderbilt  82% 

at Tennessee 54%

at Arkansas 56%

vs. Florida 25%

vs. Clemson 61%

If you assume the most likely outcome for each event, Carolina has a great 9-3 year capped by a win over Clemson.  Someone better with statistics than me would probably tell you the expected outcome with these projections is slightly less than 8-4, as three of the expected "wins" are by a rather small margin.

However, any true Sandlapper should just go ahead and book your ticket for the Georgia Dome with the Gamecocks' impressive .007%  prospects of going 11-1.