Previewing Florida at South Carolina: Three Keys, What This Game Means, and Prediction
Will a miracle happen this weekend? Can an injury-depleted, slumping South Carolina team upset the mighty Florida Gators? Here are my thoughts on the game.
Three Keys
1. Score Points
In the last four games, we've scored 6, 14, 13, and 16 points in each game. That should worry you going into this game, in which we're taking on one of the best defenses in the country. Florida isn't N.C. State, and there's no way we're going to win this one by a 7-3 or a 14-10 margin. The Gators will likely score at least in the low-20s, and that's if our defense plays well and we don't give up any points off turnovers. That means we're going to have to score around 10 points ahead of our average over the past few games to get the win.
On the bright side, the Gamecocks have actually moved the ball quite well lately, having gained about 1500 yards over the past three games. The problem is that we've had numerous drives stall out around around the opponent's 40, as well as a few trips to the goal line that haven't resulted in TDs. At this point, this kind of behavior has become a trend, so it's reasonable to doubt whether we can change it now. You have to think, though, that a few key changes by the offensive staff could make a difference.
2. Stop the Run
Florida is going to show us all sorts of rushing looks. Option plays, HB dives, QB draws. The Gators have one of the best rushing offenses in the country. We haven't done much to stop the run over the past couple of weeks, and things might be even grimmer this week if Cliff Matthews and Devin Taylor are both out. Whoever gets the starts, we're going to have to really step it up in this regard this week if we're going to keep Florida from piling it on late.
3. Turnovers
While we certainly can't afford to commit any turnovers ourselves, what I'm really pointing to here is that our defense needs to create some turnovers. Our offense, Tennessee game aside, isn't turnover prone itself, and I have faith in their ability to continue to protect the ball against Florida. I don't have faith in our defense's ability to force them, though. So far this year, we haven't been able to do that very often. In fact, we haven't forced a turnover in the last three games. That has to change this week. Scoring points off turnovers is the classic recipe for an upset, and I see that as being one of the keys to tipping the scale in our favor.
If it sounds like I'm repeating myself with these keys this week, I am. These have been our bugaboos for the past several weeks, and finding a way to improve in these areas is what we're going to have to do to get our season on track.
What This Game Means
Well, obviously, a win in this game would be a season-saver. And I don't think it's out of the realm of possbilities. Unlike last year's version of the Gators, this year's team seems beatable, even if they're still undefeated. They've had a few close games and have generally looked about as vulnerable as an undefeated team can look. On the other hand, this year's Gamecocks appears to have all the tools in place to have a great offense, other than perhaps an offensive line. It hasn't all come together yet, but if it did Saturday, I think we could win. On the other hand, a loss isn't necessarily the end of the world. We'll still be able to salvage the season with a win over Clemson and a good bowl showing. We have to, though, keep this one respectable. A bad loss would be disastrous for this team's psyche, and the fan's would likely give up on this team.
Prediction
As said, I don't think a win is out of the question here. If we maximize our scoring opportunities and play over our heads defensively and force a couple of key turnovers, we should be right there with the Gators. Moreover, this game is at home. If the game is close late, the W-B will be rocking, and that will certainly play to our favor. However, the thought of us playing the perfect game at this point in the year, after we've had a lot of evidence indicating this team's failures, seems unlikely. Moreover, the Gators are a great team, not the kind of team you finally put it all together against. I think we're going to see a good performance out of our guys this week, but I think that, in the end, Florida will prevail. Let's say 31-24.
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24 points
Would be more points than anyone has scored against the Gators this season. The current high is 20 by Arkansas, where we lost 4 fumbles and Arkansas had no turnovers. -4 on the day. This just means that your formula is spot on – force Gator turnovers and we’ve very vulnerable.
As stout as the defense is – they do occasionally give up the big play, but rarely a TD. Florida has only allowed 8 TDs in 9 games….and 2 of those 8 were pick-6s against Miss St.
I am upset that I will be missing a trip to Columbia this weekend – always a great time.
Best of luck
Well done as usual Gamecock Man. As is typical for this weird rivalry of late, I’m sure it will be a great game. I’m going to say Florida 31, South Carolina 13. Pretty close to what you’re saying, but like skigator93 says, I doubt there will be 24 points scored by SC, especially with their struggles in the last 4 weeks or so.
Enjoy watching! GO GATORS!!!
A few additional points :
- Florida’s defence has one or two bad possessions in each game (the beginning of each half usually) – your guys have to capitalise with TDs when those come around.
- You can’t muck up on special teams, and it would be helpful to bust a big play of your own, probably on a kick return; Florida covers kicks fairly well, but has been almost untouchable on punts. You don’t want to get into a field position battle with Urbs, Charlie and Chaz.
- Red-zone defence is vital; Florida has a fairly good scoring rate, but far too many of those scores are figgies. Get the third-down stops (I tremble at the thought of red-zone five-wide formations against Norwood), and force Sturgis to build up the score three points at a time.
Good luck tomorrow – just not too good, you understand.
This seems pretty accurate to me.
I think the game will play out like Matt and ski say above IF we fail to do these things. We’re not good enough to battle it out with the Gators; our average game and your average game will end up in a 13-21 point Gators victory. If we can play above our heads, though, and make a couple of huge plays, we could have a chance.
Early game is key—this team is low on morale right now, as are the fans. If we get behind early, we may stop fighting. On the other hand…
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Nov 13, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Florida’s been pretty mediocre in early game situations this year – even when we win comfortably, like against Vandy, its usually a gradual game-long accumulation of points that finally buries the other guy. Kentucky’s been the only opponent to get blitzed out of it in the first quarter. (Even Troy wasn’t smashed until the second.)
Something else to consider – Florida’s defence is pretty tough in tight games, but it’s murder when it has a lead. If SC can keep it tight all the way, it has a very real chance, but you cannot fall behind by two TDs. Unfortunately, as noted above, Florida’s not been putting up quick leads like that very often, so we haven’t gotten the snow-ball effect of pressure and panic and mistakes that turned games into blowouts over the last part of last year (basically from LSU – maybe Arky – through FSU.)
In sum, I think you’re exactly right – if both teams play to the same level relative to their capabilities, it’s a comfortable if unsightly Florida win. But a down game from us and an up game from you – both very possible – and it gets… interesting.
Thanks for coming by, guys...
If any of you are at the game tomorrow, I hope you enjoy yourselves.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.

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