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Post-Spring Previews: Ole Miss

The fourth week of the season brings the heavily hyped Ole Miss Rebels to Columbia for a Thursday night game. The Rebels open the season against Memphis and Southeast Louisiana, so they should be undefeated and ranked fairly highly for this game. If we beat NC State and UGA (keep your fingers crossed), we will likely also come in as a top 15 team, setting up an early season matchup of ranked SEC squads. In any event , this will be a huge game for both teams; for Ole Miss, it's a necessary hurdle to prove they're ready to meet expectations, and for South Carolina, it's an opportunity to establish ourselves as a surprise team.

Let's see how we stack up against Ole Miss.

Offense

Quarterback

The Rebels return junior quarterback Jevan Snead. Snead is widely regarded as having one of the best arms in college football and could very well be the top overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft if he has a good year. While I have high hopes for Stephen Garcia this year, it would be hard to say that any signal caller not from Gainesville, Austin, or Norman doesn't have a strong disadvantage against Snead, who comes into this season as a dark horse Heisman contender.

Verdict: Strong advantage Ole Miss

Running Backs

Ole Miss returns a plethora of talent for what should be a tailback by committee approach. Cordera Eason, Brandon Bolden, and Enrique Davis are all backs that can run for both speed and power, and all will see time on the field. And none is was the Rebels leading rusher last year. That honor would go to Dexter McCluster, who is a receiver but lines up under center in the "Wild Rebel" formation, from which he often runs the ball. McCluster is the fastest of this group. All of these options are good news for Houston Nutt, a master at coordinating effective running attacks. I expect a much improved running game for the Gamecocks this year, but it won't be as good as what Ole Miss brings.

Verdict: Slight advantage Ole Miss

Wide Receivers and Tights Ends

Although they lose Mike Wallace, the Rebels return a set of big play receivers in McCluster, Shay Hodge, and Markeith Summers. This group has tons of speed and Ole Miss as a team averaged over 15 yards per completion last year. That's scary against our young secondary. I like the Rebels here.

Verdict: Slight advantage Ole Miss

Offensive Line

This is the big question mark for what is an otherwise star-studded Ole Miss offense. Star left tackle Michael Oher and both guards are gone, leaving big shoes for the new crop of players to fill. The Rebels have talent coming to play, including tackle Bradley Sowell, who will take over for Oher. However, they won't have much time to gel before playing us (again, we're their first big-time opponent), and an injury to Sowell or right tackle John Jerry could spell disaster. I would say we have a slight advantage here if our guys continue to improve.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Defense

Defensive Line

Although they lost Peria Jerry to the NFL from a unit that led the SEC in tackles for a loss, Ole Miss has what is probably the league's best defensive line. Greg Hardy and Jerrell Powe are the two everyone is talking about, but Marcus Tillman and Kendrell Lockett are also pretty good. I like our defensive line a lot this year (although I worry about depth), but I think Ole Miss has a slight advantage here.

Verdict: Slight advantage Ole Miss

Linebacker

Ole Miss graduates its best players at the linebacker positions, Tony Fein and Ashlee Palmer. The Rebels do return some solid players with significant experience, such as Patrick Trahan. However, this is a question mark area for them; they certainly don't have anyone like Eric Norwood. If we can hold their linemen at bay, I like our chances to run the ball against these guys as well as to set up mismatches in the short to mid-range passing game.

Verdict: Strong advantage South Carolina

Secondary

Although they return some experience at these positions, there are concerns here for the Rebels, as Ole Miss's secondary was the weak link in an otherwise stout Ole Miss defense last year. This isn't to say they're a horrible unit. They played well at times, such as in the Cotton Bowl against a high-flying Texas Tech offense. However, Ole Miss was usually a team you could pass against if you could protect your QB long enough; don't forget, this is a team that Chris Smelley more or less torched. While we have some questions here due to departures, we have some talented players returning and some good incoming talent that should give us a slight advantage here.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Special Teams

The Rebels return one of the conference's better placekickers in Joshua Shene. Their main return guys last year were Marshey Green and the departed Mike Wallace; both of the punt and kickoff return units were better than average last year, but losing the speedy Wallace leaves a hole to fill. Their coverage units were also pretty good. With a lot of question marks to answer after losing Ryan Succop, Captain Munnerlyn, and coach Ray Rychleski, I'd say we're at a disadvantage here until we prove otherwise, although I do like our return units when Chris Culliver has the ball.

Verdict: Slight advantage Ole Miss

Head Coach

In the wake of Ole Miss's surprising 2008, pundits everywhere have proclaimed the greatness of Houston Nutt and have derided Arkansas for ever letting him get away. I can't say I agree with this sentiment. Nutt is certainly a good coach and has no peer in terms of motivating his teams to win big games. However, he has some shortcomings that have kept him from the top despite the fact that he had the talent in place with his last two Arkansas teams to win the SEC. First of all, the guy seemed afriad of the forward pass at Arkansas, even when he had Mitch Mustain under center. To his credit, he seems to be embracing post-1960s football these days at Ole Miss. Second of all, his bickering with coaches and off-field shenanigans cost him Mustain, a few other players, and talent offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn for the 2007 season, which could have been a big one for Arkansas. Finally, although he brought some good players to Arkansas, for the most part he's been a very average recruiter, unless you call signing 35+ players this past year at Ole Miss the sign of recruiting prowess. Lest we forget, Nutt's success in Oxford has come courtesy of Ed Orgeron's recruiting talents. This isn't to say that Nutt isn't a better coach than Orgeron; he is. I just don't think he's the genius everyone is saying he is right now. A couple of years ago, before he upset number one LSU in Baton Rouge, nobody was saying this stuff. I'd call comparing him to Spurrier, who has a great legacy but hasn't produced as of late, a push.

Verdict: Push

Overall

My general impression when comparing these teams is that we should have a slightly better defense than Ole Miss, while they should have a much better offense than us. This isn't necessarily to say that we won't have a good offense this year; the fact is, Ole Miss projects to have a truly great one if they live up to expectations. The thing I like about how we match up against them, though, is the Ole Miss offensive line / USC defensive line matchup. We should be able to get some pressure on these guys, which could be key to keeping them from scoring 30+ against us. Of coure, the battle between our o line against their d line will be important, as well; if we can't contain Hardy and Powe, we could be looking at one of those five sacks, four turnovers games we've grown accustomed to. The other thing I like about this game is that it's in Columbia on a Thursday night. All in all, I think the Rebels are probably a slightly better team than us, but I think we'll manage to pull out an upset here.

Prediction: Gamecocks by a field goal

P. S. This prediction has homer written all over it; expect this game to be brutally tough to win.

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So...

South Carolina has an advantage in three of eight positions (none of which are Quarterback, Halfback, Wide Receiver, or Defensive Line), yet they should win by a field goal from an unproven place kicker?

Explain that.

Our Offensive Line difficulties are overplayed. We return 1) a guard who split starts last year, 2) a guard who, as a freshman, set our bench press record, and 3) the aforementioned LT Bradley Sowell, who saw a lot of time last season as a blocking tight end in order to grow accustomed to the speed of the SEC. While South Carolina may have a slight advantage on the offensive line, I don’t think it’s enough of a difference to handle our defensive line. We have a three-year starter at RT who is pre-season All-SEC, yet we didn’t move him to LT. To me, that’s a sign of faith to Sowell.

by Juco All-American on Jun 22, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Hey...

I said it was a homer pick. That essentially meant to disregard the prediction, which was made more from the gut than from the mind. The comparisons say more about how I really view these teams in contrast to one another. Another contradiction that you may have noticed is that I like our d line vs. your o line, while it could just as easily be said that your d line will dominate our o line. Moreover, Garcia is probably more likely to screw up the game under pressure than Snead is.

All of this is to say that I think you guys probably have the better team. However, the difference isn’t all that great, the game should be close, and we do have home field advantage. It’ll be a close game and we’ll have a chance to win. I’m just going with my instincts on the prediction. And yes, these “instincts” are oftentimes wrong. At any rate, thanks for coming by and filling me in on your o-line situation.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I certainly think that it's a toss-up.

Slight edge to Ole Miss at best.

I just didn’t see how your reasoning added up to your pick, even in terms of homerism.

Your uber-homerism is noted. Carry on.

by Juco All-American on Jun 22, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

The reasoning didn't add up. That's why I had the disclaimer at the end of the column.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

A couple of things

First, its good to be back over at G’nB Attack. Last year’s handling of the blog poll was great stuff. If everyone in the blogsphere had your work ethic, well, I’d probably get fired from my job for lack of productivity.

A quick, nit-picky grievance: Why do people insist that Houston Nutt can’t recruit? If you’re into the recruiting services’ star based recruiting systems (which we at Ole Miss are not, due to some glaring miscalculations), you’re likely under the impression that Orgeron moved mountains to bring in top-ranked classes at Ole Miss. The truth is the best guys he brought in often were ranked lowly, and the highly ranked guys that brought attention to his classes without fail never panned out (Schaeffer, Lane, etc.)

All that said, the highest ranked class Orgeron brought in was ranked 16th. His other two were ranked in the high 20s and 30s. Nutt’s 2008 class at Ole Miss was ranked 18th. And that was a year after Orgeron went winless in the SEC. Further, I don’t get how in one breath you can say Nutt had the talent to win the SEC in 2007, and in the next say he can’t recruit well. Didn’t he recruit that talent to Arkansas the four years prior to 2007?

by Bill Fremp on Jun 22, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, Nutt's 18th-ranked class was the one where he signed 37, right?

The high ranking was largely due to quantity, not quality (not to say that there aren’t some quality players in there, like Bobby Massie), so I don’t think it’s really a representative recruiting class, unless you consider signing 10+ more than the NCAA limit representative.

As far as the talented 2006-2007 teams are concerned, I think those teams were a perfect storm of sorts, rare years when Nutt had the right players at the right positions to win lots of games. Having Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and a good offensive line is good enough to have a great team, although that alone doesn’t mean a coach is a great recruiter. Compare, for example, what losing McFadden to injury would have done to that team to what losing Knowshon Moreno would have meant to last year’s Georgia team, and you’ll get a sense of the difference in talent at the two schools. UGA would have replaced Moreno with Caleb King and would have still won a comparable number of games, while Arkansas would have likely folded and won 4-6 games.

But you’re probably right. “Very average” is probably a bit too harsh for someone that brought players like McFadden and Mitch Mustain to Fayetteville; Nutt’s a pretty good recruiter, but I don’t think he’s what I would call a great recruiter. He had sustained success at Arkansas (other than during the probation years), but was never able to consistently parley that success into top-25 classes. Of course, it may be a little easier to do that at Ole Miss, which I would consider a slightly more attractive destination with greater proximity to recruiting hotbeds than Arkansas. We’ll see.

Personally, I think Nutt’s greatest skill is motivation. It’s rare to see a coach so beloved by his players.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

The high ranking was largely due to quantity, not quality (not to say that there aren’t some quality players in there, like Bobby Massie), so I don’t think it’s really a representative recruiting class, unless you consider signing 10+ more than the NCAA limit representative.

Categorically false. The recruiting services rank their classes based off of the top 20 athletes in each class. Rankings aren’t given based on number of athletes signed. If you were to somehow give out all 85 of your scholarships in one year, the services would still only consider the top 20 when ranking the teams.

Compare, for example, what losing McFadden to injury would have done to that team to what losing Knowshon Moreno would have meant to last year’s Georgia team, and you’ll get a sense of the difference in talent at the two schools. UGA would have replaced Moreno with Caleb King and would have still won a comparable number of games, while Arkansas would have likely folded and won 4-6 games.

Um, I feel like he would’ve gone to his other first round draft pick running back, Felix Jones. And then if Felix Jones went down, he would’ve gone to Peyton Hillis, the starting running back for the Denver Broncos.

Also I don’t understand how people try to neuter his recruitment of each of those guys. It was a “perfect storm”? Honestly, what does that even mean? He recruited three NFL running backs who saw starting time as rookies – all in the same class. He should be given props for that. Period. If Steve Spurrier does that in one class, can I come back and say “aw hell, it was just a perfect storm – he’s just an average recruiter”?

by Bill Fremp on Jun 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK, OK...

I was wrong about the 37-man super class. But I did go back on saying he was an average recruiter, so calling me out for calling him that no longer makes sense. Unless you’re choosing to ignore certain parts of what I’m saying.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW, on a completely serious note...

How would you rate Nutt as a recruiter? I see that you think he’s better than I do, but how would you compare him to Richt, Meyer, or even Spurrier?

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Definitionally, that means average right?

Then we’re in agreement. :-)

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Point well taken.

I don’t know why I even brought the recruiting thing up in the preview, to be honest. Nutt has the talent to win this year, which is what matters right now.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I will say, this game does make me very nervous.

The fact that it’s a Thursday night game and we’re the away team is bothersome enough for me. Very rarely do away teams win these things and, after their lone loss to the Oregon State Beavers on a Thursday, I’m sure the USC Trojans can attest to their difficulty.

This fall will mark my first ever trip to SC for a game. I am very, very excited to see what the gameday experience with a few Gamecocks will be like.

by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jun 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

You'll love it. Williams-Brice is a great place to see a game.

The fans at USC are very passionate, but (compared to, say, LSU fans—I know an Ole Miss man knows what I mean here) they’re also very hospitable to opposing fans.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 22, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

...and getting better all the time.

The past few years have seen some improvements to the stadium and surrounding area. They just finished renovating the fairgrounds parking. Now its more of a green space, but with paved drive-ways – looks much better. Anyways, don’t expect a “Grove” experience, though.

by The Feathered Warrior on Jun 22, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Away Day Help

I will also be making my first trip to Columbia for the game. What are the odds of finding an affordable hotel room? Any suggestions? In oxford for big games its pretty tough if you don’t book way in advance and even then the rates are increased big time. If hotels are out, any other suggestions?

by shitnowiworkinjackson on Jun 23, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm probably not the best person to answer this question...

So I might be wrong about this, but being that Columbia is littered with hotels, supply and demand probably doesn’t drive the prices up as bad as in a smaller town like Oxford. The problem in Columbia (as with most things around USC) will be parking. I used to always get rides with friends with tailgating spots on the fairgrounds, so someone that knows more about the parking situation might be able to fill you in better than me, but I would think that parking for you would require parking at some distant lot and having to hike to the stadium, and even that might be tough to find. A better bet might be to get a hotel and shell out the money for a cab, although it might be a huge pain to get a cab back to the hotel after the game. Anyways, hopefully someone better informed about this than I am can help you out. Enjoy your visit!

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans. http://www.garnetandblackattack.com

by Gamecock Man on Jun 23, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just expect to pay $20 for parking...

and you will will have a good experience. Sadly, there is not a large amount of free parking around Williams-Brice like at some other stadiums (LSU comes to mind). However, there is plenty of parking available if you’re willing to pony up a Jackson and, of course, arrive early. I think you might be able to find some cheaper lots ($10 or as low as $5) on Assembly street on your way to the stadium. These are usually run by Boy Scouts, etc. You can also park the old Bomber Stadium on Assembly, which I think might even have a shuttle service. I’m not sure if the University has started up a shuttle service this year for people parking at the Colonial Life Arena, but I would check into that a few weeks prior to the game. If you really want to park on the cheap you can always park on campus walk the 1.5 – 2 miles to W-B. It’s really not as far as it looks.

As for hotels, I think Gamecock Man is correct in asserting that finding a hotel shouldn’t really be to much of an issue. Make sure to check hotels in Cayce and West Columbia, as they are only about 10 minutes away. Really, it’s all one big (cough) tri-city area. I can tell you that my parents have always stayed at the Marriot: Courtyard here.

by The Feathered Warrior on Jun 23, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

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