The AP and Coaches Polls Don't Respect South Carolina and Ole Miss
by Gamecock Man on Sep 27, 2009 5:45 PM EDT
in Football
13 comments
Tell me which one doesn't belong:
- Unranked Washington defeats fourth-ranked Southern Cal. The following week, the Trojans drop to 10th in the Coaches Poll and 12th in the AP Poll. The Huskies jump to 24th in the AP and 31st in the Coaches.
- Unranked South Carolina defeats fourth-ranked Ole Miss. The following week, the Rebels drop to 21st in the AP and 18th in the Coaches. The Gamecocks rise to 28th in the AP and 29th in the Coaches.
- Unranked Iowa defeats fifth-ranked Penn State. The following week, the Nittany Lions drop to 15th in the AP and 13th in the Coaches. The Hawkeyes rise to 13th in the AP and 17th in the Coaches.
If you picked our upset of the Rebels, you win the prize. In the other two cases, the losing team didn't drop as much, and the winning team jumped higher.
On the face I don't necessarily have a problem with us not making the poll. Ole Miss probably was overrated, and we still have a lot to prove. Moreover, if we take care of business over the next two weeks, we'll be ranked before heading to Tuscaloosa, which will be a legitimate opportunity to prove that we're for real. In other words, I think if this team is really one of the 25 best teams in the country, it will prove that over the next several weeks. It will have plenty of chances.
However, I do take issue with the seeming double standard in place in how the pollsters judge upsets. This double standard victimized both us and the Rebels. While I'm not surprised that undefeated Iowa jumped as high as they did, why didn't Penn State drop as far as the Rebels, considering that they lost at home and generally looked completely inept after an easrly big play? How did Washington jump much higher than us, despite the fact that Washington looked much more like a fluke at the time than we do now? (The Huskies, of course, proved they were indeed a fluke by losing to Stanford this past weekend.)
The answer, I think, probably has a lot to do with how the polls view "name-brand" programs vis-a-vis Ole Miss. Although lots of teams have shown signs of being overrated over the past couple of weeks, the idea that the Rebels were overrated has gained more traction than it has for other teams. That's because the pollsters are more ready to believe that Penn State, Southern Cal, and others of their ilk will bounce back while the Rebels sink back to their usual place in the bottom half of the SEC West. Moreover, our win over Ole Miss doesn't really mean as much because it didn't come against a traditional power. All in all, it's just yet another reason why the average football fan should hate polls.
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You're Dead Right About Double Standards
On the Ole Miss blog Red Cup Rebellion, I posted that the Ole Miss loss was not nearly as bad a loss as Miami at Va. Tech, Southern Cal at U.W., Cal at Oregon or Penn State hosting Iowa – which I thought was the worst of all (after all, all the other “bad” losses were by visitors, while PSU was a 10 pt. favorite, playing for revenge at a packed Beaver Stadium, and was totally out of it the second half. – by contrast, Ole Miss was playing in a hostile environment, and rallied in the second half to hold USC to five 3-and-outs and had the ball at the end of the game).
But the writers/coaches are never going to punish their idols JoPa at Penn State or Pete Carroll at Southern Cal. Never, ever, ever. The poll voters like “sure” things and the old programs … new guys like Ole Miss (or South Carolina) who don’t win consistently will never get respect, regardless of the merits … .
But worse than how the poll voters punished Ole Miss, is how the Cocks stack up against numbers 20-25. I thought we’d come in at 21 or 22. Yet look who is there ahead of us:
20 BYU (absolutely humiliated at home by FSU, they roll a hapless Tulane team). I suppose we can give the Cougars some credit for beating OU after the put Bradford out of the game. But crushing the Green Wave doesn’t atone for being crushed by FSU – especially after FSU’s follow-up defeat to South Florida.
21. Ole Miss. I don’t think they deserve to fall to 21 while Penn State, who had a much, much worse defeat, merely drops to 15. Ole Miss and Penn State could have equally been 4 and 6. Why is Penn State punished less than Ole Miss? Is it because the Big 10 must have a team with some sort of high rank, and all the midwesterners vote that way? It’s B.S.
22. Michigan. The most over-hyped team in Div 1A (err, excuse me, FBS). Michigan barely holds on against Indiana. Both Ole Miss and Carolina would have beaten the Rich Rodriguez Wolverines this weekend.
23. Nebraska. Should have fallen out for losing to Va Tech last week, but held on to Number 25. Spanks a halpless U-La-La team and goes to 23? Does anyone in their right mind seriously think the Huskers are better than Mizzou? Or anyone in the Big 12 north other than Mizzou is worth a damn? Sad.
24. Cal. Should have fallen out of the top 25 after squeaking by Minnesota last week and absolutely crapping the bed in the most humiliating way possible against the Ducks. Is Cal really better than Mizzou, Auburn, USC or South Florida who were left out? Nope.
25. Georgia Tech. How the hell this team gets any respect is a mystery.. Pure luck to have survived Clemson. Humiliated by Miami (only to see Miami humiliated the next week). Beat a pathetic UNC team … and get back in? The Tech players are slow and out-of-shape. Seriously better than Mizzou, Auburn, USC or South Florida? Or have wins better than Mizzou, Auburn, USC or South Florida? No way.
Georgia Tech and Cal...
Absolutely should not be in the top 25. Especially not Cal after the way Oregon manhandled them.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 27, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
I’d agree that Ole Miss’s loss to us isn’t as bad as it looks. I think Ole Miss was overrated at fourth in the country, but I do think they’re probably a top 25 team. They lost a close game in a hostile atmosphere to what appears to be a better than average Gamecocks team. There’s not as much shame in that as some of the media seem to think. Yeah, Thursday night probably proved that Ole Miss isn’t quite ready for a national title run. However, they can still have a good year. I think they’ll vindicate themselves in the end. They probably have a loss to ‘Bama in store for them, but they still look to be better than LSU and Auburn from where I’m sitting.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 27, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Not being ranked.
I’m OK with not being ranked. I think I lot of good arguments can be made for including us in the top 25, but on the other hand the only ranking that counts is the one at the end of the season. We’ve been ranked before and it hasn’t really ever been to our benefit for whatever reason. Hopefully, being left out will provide the team with the kind of focus they’ll need to beat a surprisingly good SC State team (ranked #16 as of August 21 in the FCS Coaches’ poll). The polls are always screwy this early in the year, but if we continue to perform the rankings will follow naturally.
Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina
by The Feathered Warrior on Sep 27, 2009 11:11 PM EDT reply actions
It's not so much that I necessarily think we deserve to be ranked.
It’s that I think we’ve done enough to deserve it in comparison to some other teams that are ranked, yet we’re not. It’s that teams like Penn State and their opponents benefit from the Nittany Lions’ name cache and lofty preseason rankings, while we have a larger burden of proof.
Obviously, though, you’re right about what’s now the important thing: we’ll be ranked if we take care of business from here on out.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 28, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you think beating SCSU and UK will propel us into the Top 25? I think it only happens if 20-25 lose, and we’re still behind good Auburn and Mizzou clubs.
I think we have to steel ourselves for the fact that we don’t break into the AP or Coaches’ top 25 unless we get a win at Alabama. If we fail at Alabama, however, then we’re cast back down among the also rans (like Clemson). The SEC schedule does us no favors. We could be a realistic 8-2 after the Vandy game, and ranked far below other 2 loss teams that don’t have to play our schedule.
On the positive side … at least the players won’t coast thinking they’re a great top 25 team! And maybe we can sneak up on Alabama who will think of us as another Arkansas-like team to slaughter … between a “trap” type game at Ole Miss the week before (which they should win) and the rivalry game with the Vols the week after (which the Tide should also win). Of course, going 8-2 means taking care of business for USC… and finally beating that Vandy team!
It's not that I think beating SC State will help our cause,
I just think that enough teams will lose after next week that we’ll be able to crack the top 25. Plus, another win adds another week of perspective to our schedule and what we’ve accomplished. Eventually, people will take notice of what The Gamecocks have accomplished if we continue to win.
Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina
by The Feathered Warrior on Sep 28, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Like FW says, if we win the next two weeks, we're in...
SCSU may not help our cause much on its own, but combined with other teams losing, we could get in. And Kentucky will help regardless, especially if we beat them handily.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 28, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It bugs me the more I think about it
At this point, there are two teams who can legitimately believe themselves to be the best team in the ACC. One of them was beaten up and physically dominated by a faster and stronger SEC opponent in the opening weekend, and the other is Virginia Tech.
The brand names of both the losers and victors have a lot to do with the rankings, but you can also chalk it up to ignorance. I don’t know if a single AP voter could correctly answer this question:
Q: What is the only program in the nation to have already played four 2008 bowl opponents?
A: South Carolina
I’m fairly certain we are also the only team with three victories over 2008 bowl teams.
Voters see South Carolina (3-1) and Iowa (4-0) and figure Iowa is a top 15 team, failing to consider that any of our four opponents would have beaten Iowa in week one, when the Hawkeyes needed consecutive blocked FG’s to escape a 1-AA opponent.
To their credit, they have played much better since then. You also have to give special consideration that voters who remember January 1 have reason to believe Iowa is better than South Carolina, and we have only ourselves to blame for that fiasco.
Oregon has a much worse loss than us. The Ducks are probably benefiting from everyone treating Utah like a good win, rather than a sloppy win over the 3rd or 4th best team in the MWC. Purdue also looks like a good win, though FAU is probably more talented.
The best victory for Penn State is over Syracuse. They have played a bunch of Who Dats and still managed to disappoint, going 0-4 ATS. Cal has a decent road win over Minnesota, and a couple of tomato cans. I would bet large sums of money on Ole Miss over Penn State on a neutral field, but I haven’t figured out Cal yet.
While we should move into the polls if we take care of business the next couple of weeks, it is frustrating that we face a higher standard of proof than some other programs. If you want to feel better about things, consider we are probably one of 30 teams than can still legitimately expect to play for a BCS title if we win every game remaining on our schedule, however unlikely that may be.
In the meantime, at least Glenn Guilbeau of Gannett Louisiana News Service believes.
http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=9&p=18&t1=87&t2=67&v=23&w=5&r=V
by GwinnettGamecock on Sep 27, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions
"it is frustrating that we face a higher standard of proof than some other programs"
You hit the nail on the head.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 27, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I concur.
But If I were a pollster I’d be weary of putting South Carolina too high too early in the year as well. Going 5-7 this year was not at all an uncommon prediction for us in the pre-season, so I think voters are still dealing with that as well. Plus there was that whole 2007 fiasco… We’ll break in if we beat SC State next week.
Dum spiro spero - "While I breathe, I hope"
State motto of South Carolina
by The Feathered Warrior on Sep 28, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Is USC over-exposed
I also wonder if our lack of a rank isn’t the downside of being over-exposed on two Thursday night games, which the whole college FB world watches, so that while there is all the upside that comes from being the only big game on TV, everyone gets to see all our warts … and in their minds, downgrade us even though we win …
I’m not saying we should avoid big Thursday night games, but is 2 in 4 weeks a good thing?
If we’d beaten Ole Miss on the ESPN2 late Saturday game (which, yes, is nationally televised but in the thick of all the other games/upsets), then do voters vote the outcome [which to my mind is preferred] or vote because they saw uneven play, which they don’t think rates top 25 consideration …
That's a good question...
And a reasonable possibility.
Relatedly, another thing I wonder is how pollsters are viewing the N. C. State game. At the time, everyone thought that it was an embarrassing win for us, even thought technically the ‘Pack were favored. Everyone thought that N. C. State was obviously overrated garbage, just like they’re saying about Ole Miss now. Well, now N. C. State is 3-1 with a victory over a good Pitt team. However, no one seems to be noticing or going back and giving us credit for beating a good team.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Sep 28, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
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