South Carolina Basketball: Gauging Success for the Gamecocks

by Gamecock Man on Oct 21, 2011 10:54 PM EDT in South Carolina Gamecocks Basketball

Coming off a disappointing season that ended with the attrition of some relatively high-profile players, Coach Darrin Horn comes into this season with a touch of urgency surrounding his program. More than a few people have called for Coach Horn's job. Regardless of how you felt on that note at the end of last season, you have to accept that Coach Horn is being given a chance to show improvement this season. If the product is at least marginally better this year, he'll be given a chance to return next season to lead a team that will finally have some experience to go along with its talent. I think that's fair.

What is marginal improvement, though? To get an idea, you first have to take a look at Carolina's schedule.

Western Kentucky
at Elon
Tennessee St
Mississippi Valley St
UNC (tourney)
USCw or UNLV (tourney)
Providence
at Clemson
Presbyterian
OSU
Southeastern Louisiana
Wofford
USC Upstate
SC State

at Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Florida
at Auburn
Alabama
at Ole Miss
at Florida
Kentucky
at Tennessee
at Arkansas
Georgia
LSU
at Vandy
Tennessee
Mississippi St
at Georgia

Keep reading after the jump.

Clearly, this is a fairly tough schedule. With the games against UNC, SoCal/UNLV, Providence, Clemson, and Ohio State, it features one of the tougher OOC slates we've had in a while. Then, you have the SEC East. It's hard to know what to expect there. On the one hand, UK, Vandy, and to a lesser extent Florida should be excellent. However, the division probably won't be as deep as it was last year, as Georgia and Tennessee are both in rebuilding mode after losing some key players and, in the case of Tennessee, the coach.

Even if Carolina is much better than it was last year, it's going to lose a number of games with this schedule. Anything more than 10 wins during the OOC slate would have to be considered an excellent beginning to the season. Considering there are lots of likely losses against the East's Big Three, breaking even in conference play would also have to be considered a success. Therefore, 18 wins or so, which would net an NIT berth and might put us on the NCAA bubble depending on our RPI, would be reason to be happy, particularly after what happened last year.

If we can't win that many games, and particularly if we finish around .500 again, I think you have to consider how we get there before judging Coach Horn. What made last year particularly excruciating is that we so often weren't even close to putting a quality product on the floor. Our offense was in complete shambles and we frequently lost by wide margins. If we play like that again en route to another sub-.500 season, Coach Horn will have failed with this season and we'll be back to where we were at the end of last season, with lots of questions about the future of this program. However, if we end with that record but are fielding a competitive club that has simply failed to win some close games against tough teams, that's a different story. That says that the team has improved and will show some promise heading into the next season. In that case, I think you will have to give Coach Horn credit and say that he's done some good things with the squad, despite having failed to break through with a postseason bid.

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If we can stay healthy

If we can keep our players healthy, I expect we will be a better team than last year. I believe our talent is better than a year ago, and last year’s freshmen are now sophomores. If our shooting is better, and I believe it will be, then we will have a chance in more games than last year. I support Coach Horn and the team very much and I’m looking forward to the season.

by gsb1952 on Oct 22, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

So do I. I didn't think I would at the end of last year, but I see reason for optimism now.

I still think we lack the elite big men we need to compete with UK and Vandy for the Eastern Division title, but, as you say, if our shooting improves and we limit our turnovers, we have a good shot at challenging for an NIT berth. I think Leonard is going to be a very good player for us, and the freshmen who looked lost last year will be more comfortable. Cooke and Jackson provide good upper-classman leadership.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.

by Gamecock Man on Oct 22, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I respect the fact that Coach Horn has many supporters in Gamecock nation

and I think GM has done an excellent job of keeping the coverage and conversation about the upcoming hoops season on a very positive, upbeat and pro-Horn/pro-team note.

Having said that, I still think that Darrin Horn has a lot to show us in what will be his fourth full year at the helm of the program. If we can have a winning season, and be competitive in our conference schedule, then I think it will go a long way to solidify Coach Horn. If we end up roughly the same as the last two seasons (and, granted, the season-before-last was marred by injury more than poor play) then I’m not sure what Eric Hyman will do.

I would love nothing better than to see us win on the hardwood. I am a Gamecock fan winter, spring, summer and fall. If I get frustrated with Coach Horn, it’s mostly out of a desire to see us compete (and win) in every sport. There is no reason why the Cocks cannot (a) be the best team in SC; and (b) own our in-state recruiting and ( c) compete with UK, Vandy and UF in the East year in and year out.

Here's a health, Carolina, forever to thee! UNIVERSITAS CAROLIN MERID. 1801 Emollit mores nec sinit esse feros (Ovid)

by tryptic67 on Oct 22, 2011 9:54 AM EDT reply actions

Oh, I completely agree with that, too.

When I say that I’m optimistic about the season, I’m not saying I don’t think Coach Horn comes into the season with something to prove. Last year ended disastrously and Coach Horn needs to put a better product on the floor this year if he wants to retain the confidence of Gamecock Nation. That said, I think he has recruited well over the past few others, other than having failed to nab more quality big men, and I think that will translate into an improved team this year, if the coaching staff has done their jobs and coached the players up. And listening to Eric Smith talk the other day and reading some of the reports out of practice, I’m confident that the staff is coaching the players up.

I’m also really eager to have a good hoops team. I don’t understand the now-common sentiment among Gamecocks fans that we just shouldn’t care about basketball because we’re a baseball / football school. (The thought that we’re a football school is laughable, by the way.) Basketball is an exciting sport and the second-most popular college sport nationally, and the Gamecocks are positioned to make a splash. We have a solid recruiting base, big, state-of-the-art arena, etc. We just need to make it happen. Those of you who are booing basketball right now, just wait until we finally do put a solid product on the court. It will energize the fanbase and you’ll love it. College basketball is great when you have a good team. There’s nothing like the excitement of March Madness. Alas, it’s been so long since we’ve made the field that I think a lot of us have forgotten what it’s like.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.

by Gamecock Man on Oct 22, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions

"past few years"--need to edit better.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.

by Gamecock Man on Oct 22, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Amen

Let’s be great in all three – we have the in-coaches, athletes and facilities to compete in all three. As exciting as these last two baseball seasons have been (and they have been plus the rise in college baseball on TV), I remember the way the state was energized by those great Fogler teams. We could easily fill the Colonia Life Arena if a winning product is on the court.

Here's a health, Carolina, forever to thee! UNIVERSITAS CAROLIN MERID. 1801 Emollit mores nec sinit esse feros (Ovid)

by tryptic67 on Oct 22, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

If you look at the history

of the USC basketball program, other than some of the McGuire years, and a couple of years under Fogler, there isn’t very much to be happy about. I have followed the program since the late 1960’s, so I have a lot of experience following USC basketball. It is my considered opinion that Coach Horn can build the program into one that will surpass anything since the McGuire years, but it will take a little time. This isn’t like rebuilding Kentucky or North Carolina. Let’s see what happens this year. This team might surprise a lot of people.

by gsb1952 on Oct 22, 2011 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

I hope you're right. All I want this year is incremental improvement. If this team shows that it's capable of developing an identity and competing, I'll be happy.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.

by Gamecock Man on Oct 23, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

"... one that will surpass anything since the McGuire years"

That would be fantastic.

I’m curious, gsb, what you think is a legitimate team goal for 2011-2012 roundballers that would demonstrate Horn is moving the team in a positive direction.

I’ve been a fan since the George Felton days, so you’ve got 20 years or so on me, but I was there for Felton’s ignomious dismissal; the endless search that resulted in Steve Newton; the Cremins debacle, the Fogler years and finally Davey Odom’s solid NIT teams. I hope you’re right that this time will be a surprise.

Here's a health, Carolina, forever to thee! UNIVERSITAS CAROLIN MERID. 1801 Emollit mores nec sinit esse feros (Ovid)

by tryptic67 on Oct 23, 2011 10:38 AM EDT reply actions

Goal for this season?

I think the team should have the goal of winning every game they play. Now we all know that isn’t going to happen this season, but I think it ought to be the goal entering each game. If they are going to play the game, they might as well try to win it, right?

Personally, I would be encouraged if they went 18-12 overall (regular season), and went at least 8-8 in the SEC. It seems that most people are not expecting them to do that well, and maybe they won’t, but I think they maybe can. It depends on if they stay healthy, and if they can shoot the ball well enough. I expect this team to shoot it much better than the team did last season. I’d also love to see them win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament.

Now, if they do that well, we’re probably looking at an NIT bid. I always want to go to the NCAA Tournament, but if this team makes the NIT, and wins at least a couple of games, I’d take that and look for more improvement the following year.

Coach Spurrier has coached a long time, and he is still making mistakes. Sometimes he says he probably should have done something different. Well, Coach Horn is much younger than SOS, and he is still learning what to do as well. Horn is a very intellingent guy. He also wants to win and keep his job. He wants to build a great program at USC, which is exactly what I want in a coach. If he gets enough time, I think he can do it.

by gsb1952 on Oct 23, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally

I think Horn has two years – 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 – to get it done. My thought is that the athletic department is financed to the hilt, and can’t afford to buy him out even if the b-ballers post another losing season.

Of course, if Horn improves this season (e.g., your suggestion that 18-12, 8-8 and an NIT or CBI bid would be a good scenario – which I agree with) then Hyman doesn’t even think about replacing him until the end of 2012-2013.

I see your point about Horn. Almost all coaches make mistakes. Guys who are geniuses one year are being criticized mercilessly the next. The major distinction between Spurrier and Horn, however, is that the HBC is the dean of the SEC coaches. He has a national title on his resume, along with SEC championships (granted all at Florida) and a number of CotY awards.

I’ve never heard a coach who said he didn’t want to build a great program … or own in-state recruiting … or make championship runs. So, yes, he says all the right things. But IMHO it needs to be shown on the Court.

Here's a health, Carolina, forever to thee! UNIVERSITAS CAROLIN MERID. 1801 Emollit mores nec sinit esse feros (Ovid)

by tryptic67 on Oct 23, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, sure

he has to win games, that’s why you hire a coach. The USC basketball job is not an easy one. If it were easy, then one of our previous coaches would have been more successful, and we have hired some pretty big names. No one since McGuire has been able to build a program to that level, and we gave some of them 7-8 years. And even McGuire couldn’t sustain it after we left the ACC.

I want to see how things work out this year and next. I’m no where near deciding that Coach Horn needs to be replaced. My hope is that he will get the job done and be the coach for a long time. And I think that is what will happen.

by gsb1952 on Oct 23, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions