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The SEC East in the NCAA Tournament: Why South Carolina Struggled in 2010-2011?

One thing that you've probably noticed about the NCAA Tournament's field is that all five of South Carolina's SEC East brethren made it. Florida garnered a two seed, Kentucky a four seed, Vanderbilt a five seed, Tennessee a nine seed, and Georgia a ten seed. Carolina was the only SEC East team not to make the field.

When I saw that Arkansas's John Pelphrey got the boot yesterday, one of my first thoughts was that while Pelphrey finished with an overall winning record this year, any Arkansas coach who fails to do better than Pelphrey did in the weak SEC West probably  deserves to get the boot. That's not the case in this year's East, and one thing that's been left out of the conversation about Darrin Horn and USC's struggles in 2010-11 had been the Gamecocks strength of schedule. The inclusion of the rest of the East's teams in the tournament field confirms that USC did, indeed, play a pretty tough slate this year. Is this an excuse for the Gamecocks' performance? No--certainly, a good team needs to be able to win more than two games against its interdivisional opponents, regardless of how good they are, and regardless, it's not like Carolina didn't lose to a bad Auburn team and an average Mississippi St. team. However, it is to say that perhaps Carolina wasn't quite as bad as we thought.

What's also interesting to note is how much experience some of the teams that made the tournament were fielding. Florida was loaded with upperclassman this year and loses Chandler Parsons, Vernon Macklin, and Alex Tyus to graduation, while Kenny Boynton may consider an early departure. At Georgia, both Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie are flight risks as juniors. Tennessee will lose Brian Williams and Melvin Goins to graduation and will have to sweat out Scotty Hopson's decision whether or not to leave early; the Vols are also, of course, probably going to consider firing Bruce Pearl for his transgressions and may be staring down sanctions. Kentucky's only major senior is Josh Harrelson, but the 'Cats stand to lose Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and Darius Miller all seem likely to go pro. Vandy has no key seniors, although I'm not sure which of their better players--particularly Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins--might have NBA on their minds.

In other words, what was an inexperienced South Carolina team in 2010-11 should be one of the conference's most experienced teams next year. Kentucky will likely reload quickly (that won't change while Calipari is there), but I expect Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia each to struggle to maintain their 2010-11 form, with Florida being the most likely to rebound due to Donovan's strong recruiting. This will present a good opportunity for Carolina to rebound with a strong 2011-12. It will also mean that there will be little excuse for Darrin Horn to fail to improve this team's record.

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I expect USC

to be much better next year. Coach Horn will have a more experienced team, and thirteen players to choose from instead of the eleven he had this past season. Not only will USC be deeper and more experienced, but they will be stronger and heavier overall, which beats being weaker and lighter.

I expect they will be a better shooting team, which was their most obvious weakness this past season. I expect the returning players to be improved, and the freshmen able to make a contribution. If the veterans are not able to perform at a higher level than this year, I would not be surprised if some of them were asked to leave the program. That is reality. Either perform or move on. Coach Horn knows he will be under more pressure to win next year. And knowing that, I think he will be less tolerant of bad performances from his veterans than he was this year. Having more options next year will probably mean less tolerance for failure; either play well, or someone else gets a chance.

Having the other SEC teams lose veteran players should help USC, but whoever your opponents have, you still have to beat them.

by gsb1952 on Mar 15, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm pessimistic GM

I don’t see us making the NCAA’s in 2012. Even if UT and UGA have a fall-off, i don’t see us surpassing UK, UF and Vandy. We may steal a game here or there. We may finish out of the cellar. But realistically, the NCAA selection committee is going to be taking a mere 4 or 5 SEC teams. Is the talent there to be one of them?

If I’m right (and I hope I’m not), then the next question becomes is an NIT bid good enough for Darrin Horn in the 2011-2012 season? What benchmark must he hit?

They wore garnet helmets.

by tryptic67 on Mar 16, 2011 4:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Who knows?

Assuming the freshies play like freshies, I don’t see how in the world Carolina makes the NCAA tournament. Ellington would have to have a leap in talent unlike anything anyone has ever seen, and even then I don’t have much confidence in our chances. Will Horn be let go if Carolina gets to the NIT? I dunno. If I had to guess I’d say it depends on how deep their run is in the tournament. Though, like I said many times before, I’m in favor of letting him go now.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Mar 16, 2011 5:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

If USC is in the NIT next year

Horn will not be fired. And I don’t understand how you can want to change coaches after three years. That is not enough time to build a good program at South Carolina.

by gsb1952 on Mar 16, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's the main reason that I'm not ready to say he should be fired. I don't think he's done well these past two years...

But I also think that a coach at a job like this needs a few years to try to get his program moving.

I’ll be OK with the NIT next year. It’s not ideal, but it would show incremental progress.

Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog By and For Gamecocks Fans.

by Gamecock Man on Mar 16, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Horn's second year cannot be blamed on him.

Losing Archie and Holmes ruined what chances we had that year. They did not have the bench to absorb losing those two players.

I think, had Holmes and Archie been able to play all year, that team would have been at least in the NIT, and maybe in the NCAA. Archie was going to have a huge season, IMO.

by gsb1952 on Mar 16, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

'Cause I don't like his overall philosophies about basketball.

I don’t like the direction our personnel and game plans are going. The last thing I want is to give him more time to get us further away from the type of team I’d prefer. If Spurrier instituted a smash mouth run first and forever offense with the football team I’d want him fired too without getting a chance to see his vision through, ’cause his vision would be weird and unappealing.

stuff 'bout stuff.

by silver82blade on Mar 16, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you are destined to be disappointed.

And after Spurrier leaves, there is a chance you will be disappointed in the football team as well.

by gsb1952 on Mar 16, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

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