Kiper on Alshon: "Struggled in 2011"
by Gamecock'n'Balls on Jan 20, 2012 12:10 PM EST
Email
PrintThe good ol' ESPN SEC Blog published a post this morning that catalogued the SEC entries in Mel Kiper's top five in each position. Antonio Allen, Melvin Ingram, Stephon Gilmore, and Alshon Jeffery all charted (2, 2, 5 and 5 respectively.) Here's Kiper's snippet on Alshon:
With the season that Jeffery had in 2010, many thought he might battle Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon for the top spot at wide receiver. However, Jeffery received much more attention from defenders and struggled in 2011. Still, his size makes him extremely imposing and tough one-on-one.
Just a reminder that being a "draft expert" for anyone without the divine power of omnipresence is implausible. Kiper theorizes, ostensibly, that Alshon's inability to shake double coverages is enough to consider him the fifth best receiver in the draft. The term "struggled" is interesting, though. So general, so nonspecific! Having watched each game as I'm sure you all did, was your Alshon takeaway, "Wow, he sure did struggle this year!" Or was it be, say, "Wow, we sure do run the ball a lot!" Mel, no one can argue that Alshon's numbers were objectively lower than last year. But did you use anything besides those compiled receiving statistics to reach your conclusion? And if so, did ya happen to glance over the QB charts? Is it possible that other factors were at play here? Empirical evidence abounds, Mel!
Alshon Jeffery, pictured above, struggling amidst quadruple coverage.
My bigger gripe is Kiper's tacitly voiced concern with Alshon's inability to keep statistical pace with Justin Blackmon this year. While it's clear Blackmon is a gamer -- look for him to go top 10 after netting consecutive Biletnikoff statues -- how can any seasoned draft expert not recognize Blackmon's numbers are in part the function of a system? Hell, how can anyone with at least a passive knowledge of the greater CFB landscape not recognize it? Blackmon had a tremendous pro-style quarterback in an Air Raid offense lobbing 50 bombs a game. On the other side of that coin, Alshon was dealing with an unraveling Captain Brahsome, and then a transitional offense that settled into a run-first scheme. Alshon was getting 2 and 3 balls thrown his way in a game, and he learned to live with it even if it was costing him draft dollars.
By the by, I take nothing away from Blackmon's abilities, his draft status is well-earned. But pooh-poohing Alshon's statistical output vis-a-vis Blackmon's is akin to a pitting them in a race where one is sprinting unimpeded and the other is leaping hurdles (and maybe the odd Garcia empty.) It's a different set of a circumstances.
I'm not trying to stick up for Alshon here. I think he'll be fine wherever he lands. There isn't a team in the NFL that undervalues a 6'4" freak with banana-mitts and springs in his heels. It's really a criticism on Kiper's shortsighted analysis. Let's hope Mel and the gang are aghast come April, when Alshon's the second receiver to go.
25 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Kiper and McShay are jokes. They're just a couple of guys who are no more insightful than you or I who lucked into jobs at the WWL.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
Not to trivialize this entire post, but I don’t give a frak what Mel Kiper thinks.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Yeah, I'm not trying to trivialize it at all. It was a great post.
Just saying that Kiper is notorious inept as a prognosticator.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Kiper sucks. Mcshay delivers better content in and is not as obnoxious.
Kiper and Mcshay are tv people for a reason and not working in the NFL.
AJ will be a very productive player on Sunday. It will be interesting to see who drafts him. That will determine much of his success. Like to see him and Bradford together. Notice how Sydney’s career has tailed off since the departure of Farve. It sucks having Tavaris Jackson as a qb.
Can’t wait to see how Ingram is utilized, as a DE or OLB in a 3-4. Would love to see him playing for the Steelers- Lebeau and Tomlin.
by wilmywoodcock on Jan 20, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
Good post. Agree completely. Hope to see AJ1 drafted by a team with a competent offense.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping he makes his way to Charlotte.
He’d look great catching end zone fades from Caaaaammmm.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Not only his he inept
but he is not one to choose his words carefully, even in print. But that is so true for a lot of national sports journalists, journalists, etc. From all the writing I’ve seen on SB Nation and otherwise, all of you GABA writers distill words and meaning as good or better than most any sports site out there. I presume most of you have a literary background perhaps, but even if not…intellect dictates that one can’t use any word at any time. Of course, these are sports sites, so doctoral thesis style writing is not expected. From my gathering, there are a ton of buffoons out there who have the privilege of producing a product for a national audience, yet are so inept that they shart on their opportunities at every turn, while more deserving folks perhaps get overlooked. Just the way it is, it’s all good.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
You're warming my heart, walknbalk.
I am, in fact, finishing a PhD in English—in the process of interviewing for professorships, actually. So, I do like to think I can write with some degree of precision, even if I can’t quite hold a candle to T. Kyle King. And, yes, I am, for once, mentioning Kyle without snark, because I really do admire his writing.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Congrats on the PhD. You all do a great job. I only recently discovered SB Nation, but it immediately became my favorite venue to get all the info I need and interact with other fans. I appreciate the higher standards of writing and intellect…well, I appreciate higher standards of anything.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
That's good to hear. As I've said before, we're glad you come by.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
Just remember
The best TV analyst is about as good as the worst NFL talent analyst. Otherwise, they would work in the NFL.
That said...
AJ is a possession receiver. He can go get it up high, down low and to the side. Those who say he doesn’t have true breakaway speed are correct, I think. AJ says he is going to work on his quickness and speed…I don’t know to what extent that is possible, but he would know better than I.
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
Yeah, I agree with this. I've said many times that I don't think AJ1 has the breakaway speed to be a Desean Jackson-type.
In the NFL, if he gets on a team that knows how to use him, he’ll be a consummate possession receiver.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
Alshon will be a monster in the red zone. I think his abilities in this regard were oftentimes masked by Garcia's poor goal-line accuracy.
A good NFL QB who can put up a good fade or a dart to the back of the end zone will appreciate Alshon’s hands and his ability to use his body.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 20, 2012 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
Good stuff guys, thanks for reading too.
I should have added that what’s most irritating is the widespread perception that Alshon struggled this year. Chris Low and Ed Aschoff has even suggested it, and you’d expect they’d be a bit more dialed in to the reality of the situation than, say, McShay or Kiper. But again, proof is in the pudding.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
by Gamecock'n'Balls on Jan 21, 2012 2:34 PM EST reply actions
You could also look at the analysis done at TSK
Kleph posted this little piece that looks at various receptions statistics. He lists that Alshon caught 49 passes on 88 attempts. for a 55.70 catch percentage. I could see some scouts considering that as struggling. Not really sure how Blackmon or some of the other nationally prominent receivers outside of the SEC compare to that.
- FOW
Fair enough, and thanks for providing that info as I was looking for it. Still, and I have no statistical evidence to back this up...
…but how many of Garcia’s wily underthrown/overthrown attempts do you think contributed to that number? We all know SG had a tendency to force throws to Alshon against better judgment.
Meanwhile, how ’bout our boy Justice topping the catch rate list. Good on ya, JC!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
by Gamecock'n'Balls on Jan 24, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
I can't tell how many attempts he had with SG.
But through 5 games AJ had 19 catches or 3.8 per game. in the remaining 8 games with Connor, he had 30 catches or 3.75 per game.
66.4 yds per game with SG. 47.78 yds per game with Connor.
17.4 yds per catch with SG. 13.61 yds per catch with Connor.
In looking at the stats though, Alshon’s number got much better in the last three games of the year. And could have been even better in the Nebraska game had he not been ejected. But Garcia’s completion percentage was so low this year that most of those targets and misses had to have been in that timeframe. Also, Connor really grew and played better to finish the year. I’ll miss Alshon and feel terrible that he was the one hurt most by Stephen Garcia and our lackluster offense this year.
I still think very highly of Alshon, although the Atlanta fan in me is afraid he will play similarly to Michael Jenkins. Hope he is able to be a bigger success, but that’s the Falcons fan in me.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Jan 24, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
A lot of the missed targets were definitel while Garcia was the QB.
I don’t have stats to back this up, but I distinctly remember Garcia missing Alshon several times during the Navy, Vandy, and Auburn games. Then, when Connor came in, the issue was that we didn’t throw to him a whole lot, particularly against MSU, UT, and Ark.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 24, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
I'd actually be willing to bet that Alshon's catch rate was extremely high with Connor in, at least partially because it seemed like we only threw screens to him for a handful of games.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jan 24, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Those middle 4 games with Connor reflect the screens. And then Garcia goes 3 of 9 or was it 3 of 8. With 2 tds. Domes up stephen Garcia. Consistently inconsistent. Which with character questions will ultimately be his downfall. Man that guy has some great plays and great moments but it is peaks and valleys.
Even with a down year Alshon has first round talent. I am happy for him.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Jan 24, 2012 11:06 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I can't find a game log for targets.
but I have been using this site for a lot of stats recently. very user friendly.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Jan 25, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Garnet And Black Attack
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
