Quite a lot has been written this week about the Clemson game. Gamecock Man has written a great preview that I mostly agree with. My only challenge is that I believe Carolina should "establish the pass" instead of establishing a ground game.
I won't add too much noise this close to the game, but I did want to share some quick numbers.
My key takeaways from the numbers are:
- The Gamecock's efficient passing game has to take advantage of a weak Clemson secondary. This is why I've stated numerous times that Connor Shaw needs to be able to throw effectively to win the game. I'm not talking about 300+ yards, just a mistake free 200-250 passing yards like last year.
- The Clemson passing game versus the Gamecock pass defense is a matchup of strength versus strength. If Clemson can't pass, they will not be able to score
- Clemson runs the ball 62% on first downs. I hope this trend continues since I strongly believe they will not be able to run effectively. Note that Gamecock opponents only run 55% on first down out of respect for the run defense
- Both teams have bad special teams and that phase of the game could swing the game in either team's favor. Carolina has a large advantage when Clemson punts. Clemson has a large advantage when they kick off. Clemson also has an advantage on field goals. Carolina kickoffs/punts are a wash
My prediction: South Carolina 31, Clemson 27
|
South Carolina Offense |
Clemson Defense |
|||
|
Overall Offense |
24.4 (41) |
22.6 (65) |
Overall Defense |
Points against "average" team at "average" paced game |
|
Pass offense |
0.143 (15) |
-0.031 (50) |
Pass Defense |
Adjusted points per play |
|
Run offense |
-0.044 (84) |
0.041 (88) |
Run Defense |
Adjusted points per play |
|
Successful pass (%) |
47% (40) |
44% (59) |
Successful pass (%) |
|
|
Successful runs (%) |
40% (70) |
41% (54) |
Successful runs (%) |
|
|
Pass percentage (1D) |
36% |
38% |
Pass percentage (1D) |
|
|
Run percentage (1D) |
64% |
62% |
Run percentage (1D) |
|
|
Clemson Offense |
South Carolina Defense |
|||
|
Overall Offense |
27.7 (15) |
22.6 (65) |
Overall Defense |
Points against "average" team at "average" paced game |
|
Pass offense |
0.162 (9) |
127.2 (17) |
Pass Defense |
Adjusted points per play |
|
Run offense |
0.042 (32) |
137.0 (5) |
Run Defense |
Adjusted points per play |
|
Successful pass (%) |
47% (37) |
40% (25) |
Successful pass (%) |
|
|
Successful runs (%) |
44% (35) |
35% (16) |
Successful runs (%) |
|
|
Pass percentage (1D) |
38% |
45% |
Pass percentage (1D) |
|
|
Run percentage (1D) |
62% |
55% |
Run percentage (1D) |
|
|
South Carolina Special Teams |
Clemson Special Teams |
|||
|
Overall Special Teams |
-1.11 (98) |
-0.37 (74) |
Overall Special Teams |
Points gained/lost per game through Special Teams |
|
South Carolina Kickoff |
-0.107 (87) |
-0.003 (78) |
Clemson Kick return |
Adjusted points per play |
|
South Carolina Punt |
0.043 (56) |
0.094 (26) |
Clemson Punt return |
Adjusted points per play |
|
South Carolina FG |
-0.23 (88) |
Adjusted points per play |
||
|
South Carolina Kick return |
-0.022 (89) |
0.015 (35) |
Clemson Kickoff |
Adjusted points per play |
|
South Carolina Punt return |
0.093 (27) |
-0.139 (100) |
Clemson Punt |
Adjusted points per play |
|
0.33 (16) |
Clemson FG |
Adjusted points per play |
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