This is the second in my series of posts where I plan to review South Carolina's games against its SEC foes and Clemson.
I'll cover each team's expected points and review the Gamecocks top and bottom five plays on offense and defense. I calculate expected points by reviewing the play by play data and comparing the outcome of each play to how many points it is historically worth. For example a one yard touchdown run is important, but not worth six points. The plays that got the team to the one yard line are more critical.
Recap
Missouri was lucky this game was as close as it was. If you watched the game and were wondering why the score seemed closer than what you were watching, it's because Missouri recovered six out of the seven fumbles during the game. As you may have read before, fumble recoveries are inherently random so recovering the majority of them during the game is a stroke of luck. Imagine if USC had recovered six out of seven, the final score would have been something like 52-3 instead of 31-10. That's how bad the score could have been.
South Carolina also came out with an excellent game plan on offense.
My first key question in my game preview was regarding how many explosive pass plays would the Gamecocks have. The basis for the question was that USC had shown a knack for hitting big plays against UAB and ECU, but had not been especially efficient in the passing game. Missouri's plan for the game was to play a cover two to limit long pass plays and thus force the Gamecocks to drive the field with an efficient passing game, something USC had not shown it was capable of until last week.
Spurrier and his coaching staff realized they had struggled passing the ball efficiently and that Missouri would have a game plan to take advantage of this. That's why you saw so many passing plays with short to medium options to the TEs and RBs, and Connor Shaw ran this plan to perfection.
Coach Ward also had a great plan on defense. For all of the talk being aggressive in the preseason, the Gamecocks have generally been smart on defense and let their awesome front four bring pressure on the opposing offense. Lorenzo Ward knew that blitzing Missouri is futile since they pass the ball so quickly. So he let his front four bring the pressure and kept everyone else back in coverage to prevent the 3 or 4 yard passes from becoming long gains.
Expected points
Dominating effort by the Gamecocks on both sides of the ball. You can see just how efficient the Gamecock's passing game was below.
|
Run |
Pass |
Special Teams |
Total Points |
|
|
South Carolina |
8.7 |
18.9 |
2.7 |
30.4 |
|
Missouri |
3.5 |
6.9 |
1.0 |
11.4 |
On average Missouri lost potential points when they ran plays on offense. Their rushing offense was particularly bad-no one has been able to run on USC yet this season.
|
Run |
Pass |
Special Teams |
Average points gained per play |
|
|
South Carolina |
-0.11 |
0.45 |
1.18 |
0.11 |
|
Missouri |
-0.22 |
-0.11 |
-0.13 |
-0.16 |
Top and bottom five plays on offense and defense are shown below. Sorry, no commentary this week because I've been quite busy and I can't find the video box scores on the www.secondemand.com site anymore. Anyone know what they did to them? It looks like the video is going behind a paywall soon.
Top five plays on offense
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
2 |
10:46 |
(1st and 10) Connor Shaw pass complete to Nick Jones for 36 yards to the MU1, 1ST DOWN SC. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
1 |
1:20 |
(1st and 10) Connor Shaw pass complete to Ace Sanders for 23 yards to the MU0, 1ST DOWN SC, TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
12:56 |
(3rd and 7) Connor Shaw pass complete to M. Lattimore for 24 yards to the MU41, 1ST DOWN SC, out-of-bounds (Gaines,E.J.). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
12:56 |
(1st and 15) Connor Shaw pass complete to Kenny Miles for 23 yards to the MU23, 1ST DOWN SC (Edwards,Kip). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
7:20 |
(3rd and 8) Connor Shaw pass complete to Rory Anderson for 13 yards to the MU0, 1ST DOWN SC, TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:17. |
Bottom five plays on offense
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
12:56 |
(2nd and 10) Kenny Miles rush for 8 yards to the MU15, fumble forced by Wilson,Andrew, fumble by Kenny Miles recovered by MU Edwards,Kip at MU15, Edwards,Kip for no gain to the MU15 (Corey Robinson). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
1 |
10:32 |
(2nd and 13) Connor Shaw pass complete to Damiere Byrd for 6 yards to the MU16, fumble forced by Richardson,She, fumble by Damiere Byrd recovered by MU Walker,Kenront at MU16. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
1 |
15:00 |
(3rd and 4) Connor Shaw pass incomplete to M. Lattimore, QB hurry by Richardson,She. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
1 |
10:32 |
(1st and 10) Connor Shaw sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MU22 (Wilson,Andrew;Richardson,She). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
7:20 |
(2nd and 2) Kenny Miles rush for no gain to the MU39 (Ealy,Kony;Bonner,Donovan). |
Top five plays on defense
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
2 |
11:08 |
(2nd and 10) Hansbrough,Rus rush for 7 yards to the MU30, fumble forced by Reginald Bowens, fumble by Hansbrough,Rus recovered by SC Devin Taylor at MU37. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
2 |
10:14 |
(2nd and 5) Franklin, James rush for loss of 5 yards to the MU35, fumble by Franklin, James recovered by MU TEAM at MU35. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
1 |
13:10 |
(3rd and 9) Franklin, James sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MU5 (Chaz Sutton), fumble by Franklin, James recovered by MU Franklin, James at MU5. |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
12:56 |
(2nd and 9) Franklin, James sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MU20 (J. Clowney). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
9:34 |
(3rd and 9) Franklin, James sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MU13 (Aldrick Fordham;J. Clowney). |
Bottom five plays on defense
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
2 |
6:02 |
(2nd and 10) Franklin, James pass complete to Lucas,Marcus for 23 yards to the SC3, 1ST DOWN MU (Shaq Wilson;Jimmy Legree). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
2 |
6:02 |
(1st and 10) Lawrence,Kendi rush for 28 yards to the SC37, 1ST DOWN MU (D. Holloman). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
4 |
4:45 |
(2nd and 5) Berkstresser,C pass complete to Hunt,Jimmie for 23 yards to the SC36, 1ST DOWN MU (Quin Smith). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
4 |
4:45 |
(2nd and 1) Hansbrough,Rus rush for 14 yards to the SC13, 1ST DOWN MU, out-of-bounds (Victor Hampton;Damario Jeffery). |
|
Quarter |
Drive Start Time |
Play |
|
3 |
2:17 |
(1st and 10) Franklin, James pass complete to Lucas,Marcus for 16 yards to the SC49, 1ST DOWN MU (D. Holloman). |
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