SEC Tournament First Round Open Thread: Alabama vs. South Carolina
SEC Tournament First Round Opponent: Alabama Crimson Tide
SB Nation Community: Roll Bama Roll (they have a good preview here)
Record: 16-4 (6-10)
Season Thus Far: We were talking Tide just a week ago when they came to Columbia. After pulling off the upset against us, 'Bama went on to defeat their nemesis the Auburn Tigers to wrap up the season with a winning overall record. Their two wins last week took away some of the sting of several straight losses.
Like ourselves, 'Bama comes into the tournament on the NIT bubble, likely needing to win this game to keep their season alive.
What to Expect: Again, you already know 'Bama, so I'll keep this brief. The main difference between this game and the last is that 'Bama has star forward JaMychal Green back for this game. Green provides 'Bama with a versatile big man that will create matchup problems for our bigs.
Of course, considering that backup Justin Knox had his best game of the season in the added minutes he got during Green's absence against us, maybe the key in this game isn't so much to worry about Green as it is for our big men to just come to play. Green or no Green, it's unlikely that 'Bama could have a better game from its frontline than it did last time if we actually show up. The key to the Tide's surprising victory in Columbia was their complete dominance of the glass, particularly all the second-chance points they got off of putbacks. I strongly believe that Coach Horn lit a fire under this team's butt before the Vandy game and that we won't see such lackadaisical play again this afternoon. We may be a small team, but that performance was inexcusable. As we've proved in many games this season, we're capable of protecting the glass, and I think we do it today.
The other issues for 'Bama remain the same as before, particularly that we need to deny Mikhail Torrance and Senario Hillman. We can't allow Green's return to force us to get lazy on the perimeter as we try to protect the block.
What It Means: Of course, everyone who isn't a lock is playing for the conference's autobid. Considering the small likelihood of us getting that, though, it's worth noting that this game is essentially an NIT play-in game for both teams. While our record isn't particularly impressive even for an NIT bid, we have a strong RPI due to our three marquee wins against the Richmond Spiders, Kentucky Wildcats, and Vanderbilt Commodores. (It should be noted that all three wins are probably stronger than any we picked up last year, which is why our RPI isn't all that much worse than last year despite the dramatic difference in overall record.) If we can bump our RPI up a few more spots with a win over RPI top-100 'Bama, we should get into the NIT regardless of what happens in Round Two against Kentucky. I think this is the case despite the fact that the NIT bubble has shrunk a good bit due to the outcomes in the conference tournaments.
Prediction: If this team can play anything like it did against Vandy, it can not only win this game but perhaps a couple more, as well. With everything on the line, I expect you'll see more torrid play from us, particularly from Devan Downey. I'm calling for a close 'Cocks victory.
7 comments | 0 recs |
Alabama at South Carolina Preview Capsule and Gameday Open Thread
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview Capsule
SB Nation Community: Roll Bama Roll
Record: 14-14 (4-10)
Season Thus Far: Alabama impressed out of the gate, with key non-con wins against the Baylor Bears and Michigan Wolverines and a near miss against an elite Purdue Boilermakers team. This early-season performance had Tide fans hoping that Anthony Grant would take no time to create a winner in Tuscaloosa. However, things haven't gone according to plan, as Alabama has struggled mightily in SEC play. The Tide are only 4-10 in the league, a fact made all the worse by the weak state of the SEC West.
Alabama, though, is better than their record. They have lost numerous games by small margins, including several on final-minute shots. While the Tide's tendency to meltdown late in games is partly to blame here, we can also surmise that this is just a team that's a little down on its luck.
What to Expect: Alabama comes into this game without star forward JaMychal Green and possibly without important guard Senario Hillman. If Hillman misses the game, the Tide will come in with only seven scholarship players, one of whom has played rarely throughout the year. Depth and fatigue, to say nothing of having to play less talented players more, will be major issues for 'Bama if that is the case.
Because of the depth issues, expect 'Bama to favor zone defenses with some modifications to limit Devan Downey thrown in. That means we should see plenty of open looks. If Downey, Ramon Galloway, Brandis Raley-Ross, and Sam Muldrow can shoot consistently, we should be able to score some points.
Offensively, I expect you'll see the Tide essentially put the game in the hands of talented PG Mikhail Torrance. Without Green and Hillman, they will have few other reliable scoring options, and you'll likely see Torrance try to do his best Downey impression and attempt to score in any way possible. Horn, hopefully, will have a plan in place to limit his effectiveness in this regard. It's worth noting that without Green, the Tide lack the kind of big man that's been so good at beating us this year. His loss was a major hit for the Tide in this game.
Prediction: This game scared me coming in, as we're playing poorly and 'Bama, although not a particularly good team, had the players to beat us. Without Green and (possibly) Hillman, though, I don't see the Tide winning this one. Their only chance is for Torrance to go off, and with the game in Columbia on a hopefully raucous Senior Night atmosphere, I think that's unlikely. 'Cocks in a 6-10 point victory.
28 comments | 0 recs |
Mississippi State at South Carolina Preview Capsule and Open Thread
Mississippi St. Bulldogs Preview Capsule
SB Nation Community: For Whom the Cowbell Tolls (these guys deserve some kind of award for their blog's name)
Record: 20-8 (8-5)
Season Thus Far: The Bulldogs, partially due to the continued ineligibility of uber-recruit Renardo Sidney, have failed to live up to fairly lofty preseason hype. However, they've had a decent year and look to make the Big Dance if they can finish strongly. They currently lead the SEC West, although that's not necessarily a huge accomplishment this year, and have reached 20 wins with a few games left to play. The big knock on their resume is that they don't really have many marquee wins. They dropped key opportunities to get signature victories in the non-con when they lost to the Richmond Spiders and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, and they have failed to beat the Eastern powers in SEC play, their record being bolstered by lots of wins against a weak Western Division. Clearly, they would like to win out and get to 11 SEC wins in order to avoid being in the position we were in last year of having to sweat out Selection Sunday on the bubble despite a gaudy wins total.
What to Expect: Offensively, State's strength is their outside shooting. The Bulldogs have a bevy of guards that can stroke the three, and they're good at working the ball around to get open looks. This is not a team that you can sit back in a soft zone and expect to win against. We will need to play good ball denial defense and try to keep these guys from heating up.
State's best-known player, though, is C Jarvis Varnado. Varnado averages a double-double. Offensively, Varnado is a little unpolished, but he makes his presence felt with his dominant play on the boards. We will have to rebound very well against State to keep Varnado from eating us alive with second-chance points. Varnado is most famous for his shot blocking ability, having recently broke the all-time NCAA record for blocked shots. Our ability to get shots off against Varnado will be key. Going at him is tricky; on the one hand, you want to try to get him in foul trouble early, but he's such a good shot blocker that he often makes you pay for that strategy.
As always, we need to shoot the ball better from the outside. Part of the issue here, of course, is to get more ball movement and open shots, rather than just jacking up the first relatively available shot we get. I'm looking at you Ramon Galloway.
Prediction: State is a good basketball team, but, despite Varnado's play, they're a team that lives and dies by the long ball to some extent. They're very beatable if they're not shooting well, and with the game in Columbia, I like our chances if we can play good perimeter defense and the crowd can get into their shooters' heads. I'm calling for a 4-8 point 'Cocks victory.
What It Means: We really need this game--as well as the upcoming one against the Alabama Crimson Tide--for our NIT resume.
66 comments | 0 recs |
South Carolina at Kentucky Preview Capsule and Open Thread
Kentucky Wildcats Preview Capsule
Record: 26-1 (11-1)
Season Thus Far: When we last saw Kentucky, their players were running for cover as our fans rushed the court after a historic upset over the then-top-ranked 'Cats. Since then, while the Gamecocks have failed to live up to the promise of that upset, Kentucky has remained in the running for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has won seven straight since then, including three against ranked Tennessee Volunteers and Vanderbilt Commodores teams. Indeed, the young 'Cats have gotten better with experience, particularly on defense. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins continue to come into their own, and both have likely passed Devan Downey in SEC Player of the Year talks. In sum, all is well in the Bluegrass State.
What to Expect: Last time we played Kentucky, our big men remarkably played over their heads, getting lots of hustle points and big defensive plays against a Kentucky front line that should in theory have dominated the game. The story of this game will likely be whether the same occurs again. Since the Kentucky game, we've struggled against front lines far inferior to Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins, and unless our guys really transcend themselves once again, I think we're going to have a lot of trouble with those two, both of whom have played well lately.
Another matchup to watch will, of course, be Devan Downey versus whoever the 'Cats put on him, likely Eric Bledsoe for the majority of the night. Last time around, Bledsoe and Co. did a decent job of containing Downey, but Downey got to the line frequently and managed to make some incredible shots late in the game. Lately, Downey hasn't been playing as well, partially due to an injured ankle. It will be interesting to see how the ankle is feeling and whether Downey is ready to carry the team again.
Prediction: I hate to say it, but this game is looking pretty grim. It's always possible that play an inspired game, keep it close, and have a chance for some magic late. However, if both teams play the way they've been playing since they last met, this one shouldn't be close, and in fact could get really ugly. I'm leaning towards the latter, and predict a 20-25 point Kentucky victory.
58 comments | 0 recs |
Tennessee at South Carolina Open Thread
My apologies for not getting a proper preview up for this game, but I just didn't have time. We can chat about it, though. Go 'Cocks.
80 comments | 0 recs
South Carolina at Arkansas Preview Capsule and Open Thread
Arkansas Razorbacks Preview Capsule
SBNation Community: Arkansas Expats
Record: 13-12 (6-4)
Season Thus Far: The Hogs' wild ride this year has been well documented. John Pelphrey's team struggled in the OOC, losing a series of games to very average mid-majors and getting blown off the court by most of the better teams they played. Then, they got star guard Courtney Fortson back from suspension. Since then, outside of a humiliating loss to the Kentucky Wildcats, Arkansas has been a pretty good team, even going on a five-game SEC winning streak at one point. While the NCAAs are probably a stretch for a team with such an abysmal OOC resume, the NIT and even a Western Division title are still on the table for the Hogs. They still have plenty to play for and fan morale seems to be positive for next year.
What to Expect: The Arkansas offense goes through Fortson, who is Arkansas's version of Devan Downey. A small, quick PG that can score and create in a variety of ways, Fortson will challenge whoever we put on him; I assume that will be Downey, but Coach Horn may want to rotate defenders or use zones in order to keep Downey from wearing down, especially with his hust ankle. Fortson isn't the only offensive weapon Arkansas has, though. Rotnei Clarke is a sharpshooter that we'll have to keep our eyes on, and the Hogs have a very solid front line in Marshawn Powell and Michael Washington. Arkansas is also a team that may go relatively deep on its bench, so don't expect them to be afraid to run with us. Arkansas and Coach Pelphrey like to play a pretty uptempo style, and they--for the most part--have the horses to do it with.
Defensively, Arkansas likes to press, and you can expect to see them do it tonight. They have a decent turnover margin and will challenge our ability to move in transition. Their press should, though, give us chances to get easy baskets if we can navigate their press, and, indeed, Arkansas's defense has overall been something of a liability this year, with team frequently finding ways to break the press. In the halfcourt, Arkansas can be a little undisciplined at times, and they give up a lot of threes, so if our shooters are on, we should have chances from downtown. Let's just hope we shoot it better than we did against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Prediction: I would call Arkansas a good-but-not-great team right now; they can score lots of points at times, especially when Fortson is hot, but they have their problems, too. I think the keys for us will be whether we can muster some defense, whether Downey and company can figure out the press, and whether we can capitalize on Arkansas's poor 3FG defense. I think we can do those things against the Hogs, and I'm going to go out on a limb and predict an upset here, with a 2-4 point Gamecocks victory.
What It Means: This is must-win game for the NCAAs. We probably need to win out at this point. Unfortunately, that's pretty unlikely, but at least we can keep it on the table if we win tonight.
10 comments | 0 recs |
South Carolina at Georgia Preview Capsule and Open Thread
Georgia Bulldogs Preview Capsule
SBNation Community: Dawg Sports (also check out Hoop Dawgs for some of the best UGA basketball coverage on the web)
Record: 10-12 (2-7)
Season Thus Far: Since we played them last, UGA has seemingly gone from a consistently competitive loser that lost a lot of close games to a wildly inconsistent team that blew a large home lead to the Arkansas Razorbacks, thrashed the SEC heavyweight Vanderbilt Commodores, and then got bounced themselves by the hapless Auburn Tigers. Wanna know how bizarre this team's season has been? Their only two SEC wins came against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, probably the second- and third-best teams in the conference. They've lost all their others, sometimes in excruciating fashion. One constant is that the Dawgs have been pretty good at home, where they've only lost against the Mississippi Rebels and in the aforementioned matchup with the Hogs. With four of seven remaining games at home, and one of the road games against the LSU Tigers, UGA is looking to start making an NIT push against the Gamecocks this afternoon.
What to Expect: UGA continues to be led by Trey Thomkpins and Travis Leslie. However, as talented as Leslie is, it's my impression that as Thompkins goes, UGA goes. Thompkins only played limited minutes against Auburn due to foul trouble, and although Leslie had a big game there statistically as the go-to guy, the Dawgs were largely crushed by a subpar team while Thompkins was off the floor. I wouldn't mind seeing us attack Thompkins and try to get him in foul trouble again, as he provides UGA with its best option to take advantage of our liabilities in the post. Thompkins is a difficult player to guard; he can beat you in multiple ways, and without a similarly versatile big man like Dominique Archie to help us guard him, he should have a big game against us.
Another issue in this game is going to be our 3FG defense. The difference for UGA, outside of more marginal variables such as whether or not Thompkins gets into foul trouble, tends to be whether or not their shooters are on or not. The constant in many of their best performances--including their narrow loss to us, likely their best road outing--is torrid shooting. UGA tends to shoot the ball exceptionally well at home. We will have to work hard to deny UGA's shooters and keep them from getting into a rhythm early on.
Defensively, UGA will likely try some sort of hybrid man-to-man defense. They'll man up on us, but, like Tennessee, you can expect them to have eyes on Devan Downey at all times and to be ready to double up on him as soon as he even thinks about getting into the lane. This will place added emphasis on Downey's ability to distribute and our shooters and bigs to finish. A big game shooting from Brandis Raley-Ross would go a long way in this game.
Finally, UGA C Albert Jackson was arrested yesterday. His status for today is still up in the air as far as I know. (If anyone hears an update, post in the comments section.) Not having Jackson would be a major blow for UGA. Not only is he possibly their only competent big man other than Thompkins, but his loss would also hurt UGA's depth. With UGA already appearing to begin to wear out in the home stretch, not having a guy that plays twenty minutes a night could be devastating to the Dawgs late in the game.
Prediction: This is another hard game to call. We've played poorly on the road while UGA has played well at home, so that's an advantage to UGA. UGA--particularly Thompkins--also matches up well against us, so there's that. The key, I think, will be shooting; if we can disrupt UGA's shooting and shoot well ourselves, we could pick up our second SEC road win. I'm a little skeptical, though, so I'm going to call this one for the Dawgs by 2-4 points. (Note that I've happily been wrong before, particularly against Kentucky and Florida.)
What It Means: Simply put, this is a must-win game for our NCAAs hopes. We need to pick up what would be a slight upset in order to stay afloat, as we have no margin for error in games against teams other than the powerhouses.
47 comments | 0 recs |
Florida at South Carolina Preview Capsule and Gameday Open Thread
Florida Gators Preview Capsule
SBNation Blog: Alligator Army
Record: 17-6 (6-3)
Team Strengths: Scoring Defense, 3FG Defense, Turnover Margin
Team Weaknesses: 3FG Shooting
Season Thus Far: The Gators have been an up-and-down team for much of the year. One week, they're beating Michigan State; soon after, they're losing to South Alabama. They started SEC play 0-2, but now they're 6-3, with the one additional loss coming by one point at Tennessee. Their style of play even seems uneven; early in the year, defense was a problem; now, they're playing great D. Overall, though, this seems to be a talented if underachieving team that is inching closer and closer to being a tourney lock.
What to Expect: The Gators are still a team that plays a bit smaller than you would expect; despite featuring a tall frontline, their leading scorer is PG Kenny Boynton and they're not a team that tends to dominate the post. That may be changing, though, as C Vernon Macklin continues to exert himself. Macklin is quickly becoming a major player for the Gators, and the Gamecocks will have to find a way to stop both him and F Alex Tyus. Staying out of foul trouble will be important here; the Gamecocks have been having trouble lately with keeping their big men off the bench.
Another key will be the play of Devan Downey. Downey has a minor ankle roll coming into this game. Look for Erving Walker and Boynton to challenge Downey early and see if he can keep up.
Finally, three point shooting is of the utmost important for us. Teams are figuring out more and more ways to keep Downey from getting to the basket. The only remedy for this is for Downey's kick-out options to start making some shots. Luckily for us, the Gators have trouble defending the perimeter at times.
Prediction: I liked our chances before learning about Downey's injury, but I now worry that he's going to get taken advantage of by Florida's guards and that he'll tire throughout the game. If that happens, we're in trouble. On the other hand, we tend to play our best against the Gators, and maybe Downey--who has been known to do so--can pull off a miracle. I'm thinking it's unlikely, though, and am predicting a 3-6 point Gators victory.
What It Means: The world, really, as I don't think we can go to 4-5 in the SEC and still get enough victories to make the NCAAs. Downey's injury came at the worst possible time.
49 comments | 0 recs |
South Carolina at Tennessee Preview Capsule and Gameday Open Thread
Tennessee Volunteers Preview Capsule
SB Nation Community: Rocky Top Talk
Record: 17-4 (5-2)
Season Thus Far: Tennessee started strong, streaking through the non-con with only two losses. Then, disaster struck when four players--including now-dismissed star Tyler Smith--were suspended after legal struggles. The Vols, though, seemingly improved for a few weeks after that incident, even managing to upset the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks in their final non-con game. Lately, though, UT has come back down to earth. Although each of the suspended players other than Smith are now back, UT has struggled in its last four games. It has gone 2-2, with a blowout to UGA--the Dawgs only SEC win--and Vandy and narrow victories over seemingly inferior Florida and LSU teams.
Team Strengths: Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense, FG%, FG% Defense, 3FG Defense, Turnover Margin
Team Weaknesses: 3FG%, FT%
What to Expect: The Vols have very respectable statistical metrics, as the above suggests. However, the question with this team is which UT shows up. Do we get the team that took out Kansas, or do we get the team that almost lost to hapless LSU? If the former, we can expect the Vols to do all sorts of things to give us trouble. Even without Smith, UT is still a fairly balanced team. Wayne Chism is a big man that can beat you in a variety of ways, and Scotty Hopson is quickly becoming one the league's better wing men. Both will present matchup problems for us, particularly Hopson, who has a unique combination of size, accuracy, and penetration ability that will make it difficult for us to contain him. Lakeem Jackson will likely get the unenviable task of guarding Hopson, and it will be a gut-check assignment for the freshman Gamecock. Defensively, UT is, even during the recent slide, very good, disciplined, and a tough matchup for us.
Of course, we could also see the recent version of UT, which has struggled to maintain its offensive identity, as 59- and 61-point games against questionable Florida and LSU defenses suggest. I think the key to prompting a reappearance of that UT will be to get Hopson off his game. Barring another block party, Chism will get his points against our typically soft interior defense. If Hopson also gets plenty of open shots and is able to drive into the lane a lot, it could open everything up for UT, at which point they'll leave us in the dust.
Prediction: As the above suggests, this one is tough to call. I think you are going to see Tennessee continue to struggle a bit; they won't be bad, but you get the impression at this point in the year that the victory over Kansas was a flash in the pan from an inspired team. However, they're still going to be tough on the road. We really need someone in addition to Devan Downey to step up in this game, and against a stiff UT defense in Knoxville, I'm not sure how confident I am in that happening. I'm going with a 2-4 point Vols victory.
What It Means: I don't think this is a must-win game. The Vols visit to Columbia probably is, but we can afford to lose a couple of road games to teams of Tennessee's caliber. That said, a win here would be huge and would put us firmly on the bubble, perhaps on the right side even.
16 comments | 0 recs |
Georgia at South Carolina Preview Capsule and Gameday Open Thread
The 'Cocks take on UGA tonight at the CLA. UGA is coming off a beating in Gainesville and will be looking to redeem itself. This is a must-win game if we are to keep our postseason hopes alive, as we absolutely cannot afford to drop winnable home games at this point.
Georgia Bulldogs Preview Capsule
SBN Blog: Dawg Sports (also check out Hoop Dawgs for good UGA hoops coverage)
Record: 9-9 (1-4)
Good Wins: Georgia Tech, Tennessee
Bad Losses: Wofford
Strengths: FG%, Rebound Margin, FT%, Personal Fouls Per Game
Weaknesses: Scoring Defense, FG% Defense, Turnovers Margin
Season Thus Far: The Dawgs came into this season with low expectations due to their thin roster. However, new coach Mark Fox has done a good job coaching the Dawgs and has so far exceeded expectations. That doesn't mean the Dawgs have been world beaters, though, as their record reflects the fact that they've often struggled. UGA is particularly bad on the road, where it has yet to win a game. Still, despite the subpar record, this is a significantly more competitive team than it was under Dennis Felton, and UGA fans have to be happy about the direction of their program under Fox.
What to Expect: Fox has instilled a new level of discipline into the Dawgs. This is a team that does a number of the little things well, such as moving the ball around, rebounding, and playing defense as a team. They're also, though, a team that turns the ball over a lot at times and isn't particularly good at man-to-man and transition defense.
A few matchups jump out at me in this game. First of all, Devan Downey will probably be guarded by Dustin Ware. Ware is a pretty good defender at the point, but he's not the man to stop Downey. Georgia will likely try to negate this and other individual matchup problems by rotating into zones when we try to take the ball inside. That means that we should get plenty of open looks on the perimeter. Hopefully our shooters will come to play.
The UGA player that worries is Trey Thompkins. Thompkins is averaging over 17 ppg right now and is the kind of player that can give us fits with his combination of size of shooting ability. We need to keep an eye on this guy and hope Sam Muldrow brings his swat attack again.
Prediction: UGA is improving, but this is still a thin roster. Our trip to Athens later this seasons scares me a good bit, but if we can contain Thompkins and Travis Leslie, we shouldn't have too much to worry about here. 4-8 points Gamecocks victory.
11 comments | 0 recs |
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