TARGET FILE: at Kentucky [10.11.08]
You haven't had to go far this season -- just to a Kentucky-centric blog, really -- to find some of the Wildcat faithful boasting of how their team is primed this year to beat South Carolina. It's an understandable obsession; the last time they beat the Gamecocks, Bill Clinton was still in the White House and the United States was just a few months removed from winning the war in Kosovo. (Remember that?)
Since then, South Carolina has reeled off eight straight. And the Gamecocks hired Steve Spurrier, who hasn't lost to Kentucky in 15 games against the Wildcats.
Think about that for a minute: Last year, Vanderbilt beat South Carolina. And Kentucky didn't.
Not that they haven't caused coronary episodes for Gamecock fans. They lost 27-21 in 2003, and 12-7 a year later when the hero was none other than Michael Rathe. (Remember him? No?) The 24-17 victory in Lexington two years ago was the result of a successful trick play by South Carolina and an unsuccessful one by Kentucky.
But gaps in talent and, more significantly this year, experience still exist between Kentucky and South Carolina (as they do between the Gamecocks and the top of the SEC East). That should be enough for the streak to go to nine games.
OFFENSE
O-line. Kentucky returns four starters to the entire offense, according to Steele, and three of them are on the line. The Wildcats allowed more sacks per game (2.92) than any other team in the SEC last year. They also threw it a lot more. It pans out to about 7.2 percent, which isn't setting the world on fire but also isn't bad. The running game was also pretty successful. ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Quarterback. South Carolina spent the offseason trying to keep a potential third-string signal-caller out of jail. Kentucky spent the offseason trying to keep a potential starter out of jail. Well, a potential starter at the time -- not any more. Mike Hartline has attempted six passes in his college career. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

And they lose this guy -- Woodman, or Goodson, or something like that.
Running backs. Rafael Little, he of the 1,013 yards and 3 TDs last year, is gone. Tony Dixon will probably be the feature back this year, after rushing for 411 yards and 4 TDs last season. But look for a couple of other players, including Derrick Locke (521, 5) to also get some carries. Depth alone carries this one. ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Wide receivers. When you lose a 1,041-yard, 13-TD wide receiver, you're probably in trouble. When you also lose a 741-yard, 9-TD wide reciever, you're definitely in trouble. Kentucky is definitely in trouble. Dicky Lyons is a nice player, but no other returning WR or TE had more than seven receptions last year. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
DEFENSE
Defensive line. Last year, Kentucky's rushing defense was 94th in the nation, allowing 191.1 yards per game. They averaged 1.9 sacks a game, tied for 73rd. The star of the unit is Jeremy Jarmon, who last year had 13.5 TFL, including 9 sacks. ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Linebackers. The Wildcats return two starters, Johnny Williams and Braxton Kelley, but neither of them impress, at least on paper. The third linebacker, Micah Johnson, might actually be the best of the bunch. South Carolina, for its part, has one of the best lineback corps in the SEC. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
Secondary. Kentucky returns eight picks, as does South Carolina. Trevard Lindley and Paul Warford are solid players. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
SPECIAL TEAMS
Tim Masthay was a quality punter and kickoff specialist last year. Lones Seiber was lackluster on FGs. The Wildcats lose a lot of their kick and punt return yards. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
COACHING
Rich Brooks is 0-3 against Spurrier. He has a worse record (19-18) over the last three seasons than Spurrier (21-16) and over his career. (Brooks isn't even .500 as a head coach.) ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
THE RESULT
Kentucky isn't going to be anybody's cupcake this year. They are a good team. But the losses on offense are just too much for a team that hasn't given us any reason in the past to believe that they can beat South Carolina. Another close win -- but a victory nonetheless. LIKELY WIN
THE REST OF THEIR SEASON
Good teams go 6-6 or maybe 7-5 in the SEC. That's probably about right for the Wildcats. They have five should-wins on the schedule: Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Arkansas and Vanderbilt. They've also got a good shot in games at Louisville and at Mississippi State, as well as outside shots at upsets against South Carolina and at Tennessee. 6-6
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Severe Thud Watch
The coach who had led his team from the bottom of the SEC East to two straight winning season strode to the microphone and issued a bold declaration, despite losing several players crucial to his two successful season.
"I will not undersell this football team. I think we can win the (SEC) Championship."
You might think C&F is talking about Rich Brooks at the 2008 SEC Media Days. You would be wrong.
It was Lou Holtz. And the year was 2002.
South Carolina fans were as giddy as their coach. After all, the ageless wonder had led them to two winning seasons, and this season's team was arguably more talented, even with all those key players gone.
They went 5-7.
We're fantathtic. Now, let me thow you my newthpaper trick.
Now, do flash forward to Brooks' SEC Media Days session in 2008. Brooks was certainly optimistic, in his crotchety old man sort of way.
(Brooks faced a fair number of questions, by the way, about how long he intended to stay with the Wildcats. It's almost unseemly to ask a man about retirement so much unless he's drooling on himself. And then you know he's not going to answer the question anyway, because Bobby Bowden doesn't talk about that kind of stuff.)
"I think we became a viable team in the SEC East," said Brooks, as one reporter checked his pulse. "I believe we'll be a viable team again this year."
"One team has a run of being very, very good, and they might fall off. And by 'falling off,' that means they're not playing for the SEC Championship or national championship, they're just winning bowl games or playing in bowl games. It's great in my mind that now we're part of that conversation. We intend to stay there," he said, as another reporter handed him a MedAlert.
"I think that we've closed the gap on the talent level, which is the biggest siginificant difference in Kentucky football now versus four or five years ago," he said, as yet another reporter covered him with a blanket.
Kentucky has been a bottom-dweller for a long time before (and even for a few season after) Brooks arrived. No one saw the Wildcats doing as well as they did in 2006 or 2007. So it was probably no surprise to Brooks or his players that the assembled media once again chose the Wildcats to finish fifth in the SEC East.
"We're a lot of guys (who) have a lot of chips on our shoulders," said defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.
Dicky Lyons Jr. gave a typically amusing answer to the question.
"You're always going to have naysayers, people trying to put you down," he said. "For me, being a 5'11" white guy as a wide receiver, you're never expected to play in the SEC in the first place, so it's all bulletin board material for inspiration to prove people wrong."
But it will be difficult. QB Andre Woodson is gone. So are RB Rafael Little, WR Steve Johnson, WR Keenan Burton and TE Jacob Tamme.
C&F is not trying to slight Kentucky, or their fans, who are understandably excited about 2008. Much like their South Carolina counterparts of 2002, they see a team that gets better and reason that their lot in the league must improve. They perhaps don't see what eventually became clear to Gamecock fans a few years ago: That Florida is also getting better. So is Georgia. Tennessee? Eh, maybe.
Just a gentle reminder: It's not good enough to get better. You have to get better than everyone else.
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The Morning After
You would think Bobby Petrino would know better.
After all, this is the same guy that joined the Atlanta Falcons and then bolted because -- regardless of what he might say -- the job got too hard when the team lost Michael Vick.
Now, the Gypsy Coach of the South steps into essentially the same situation at Arkansas. A team that has been good but not great. (Though the Hogs were a better college team the last two years than the Falcons were an NFL team in the two years before Petrino came.)
And a team that has lost its most valuable pieces.
Darren McFadden and Felix Jones are gone. And the rest of the league couldn't be happier.
See ya later, guys. You won't be missed.
"I'm just glad that we don't have to game-plan for them anymore," said Kentucky defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.
It's easy to see why.
There are a number of statistics that show how impressive -- and indispensible -- the McFadden-Jones tandem was. Here's just a few:
McFadden holds Arkansas' career records for rushing attempts, yards (by 1,040!) and 100-yard games (22, leading the next member of the list by six, or half a season). He owns the top two seasons in terms of rushing yards, as well as the 12th.
Felix Jones is the all-time Arkansas leader in yards per carry for a season and a career, fifth in career yardage and fourth in the number of career 100-yard games.
And on and on it goes.
Amazingly, Petrino appears to have faced not a single question about the departure of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones during his session in the print and Internet room. (C&F is going by the transcript, since he had to miss Petrino's remarks.) Petrino did talk a little bit about Michael Smith, apparently the front-runner for the starting position.
"He's a smaller running back that is very quick and has a great burst," Petrino said. "Can do a lot of things with him. ... So we're going to have to try to figure out ways to utilize his strengths and get him the ball in the open field."
Of course, Petrino has a different plan for the offense. And it will be hard for the offensive line and QB Casey Dick to operate a pass-first offense in a game situation for the first time. And for a few times after that. (In fairness, if past history is any indication, it might be hard for Dick to operate any offense that doesn't consist of "hand the ball to the impossibly strong and fast guy and watch him run.") The Gypsy Coach of the South can play it down as a "learning experience" that "hasn't been difficult" if he wishes; we'll see when the games begins.
The smart money says this will be a hangover season for Arkansas, much as 2004 was for Ole Miss (after they lost Eli Manning). When a team has a great player, it can be intoxicating, creating a buzz around the program that feels good at the time.
But if you rely too much on beverages to have a good time, no amount of coffee and tylenol can stop the world of hurt you face the next morning.
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