Gamecock Man has already given you a comprehensive look at this weekend's SEC matchups. As part of a preview of the new "project" I keep talking about, a look at some numbers on Alabama vs. Georgia, the biggest conference game of the weekend.

Hypothesis: The game between Alabama and Georgia this weekend could very well come down to quarterback play.

Proof: The numbers.

Yes, I know; all of you think I've lost my mind. After all, the Tide has risen largely on the backs of Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram -- both in the top 100 nationally in rushing ypg -- while everyone with even a passing knowledge of college football has heard of the spelling-challenged Dawgs' superstar jumping jack running back, Knowshon Moreno.

ESPN probably didn't show this one, either.

But there's the rub: While both of these teams are good running the ball, they're even better at stopping the run. Georgia, for example, ranks 35th in rushing ypg (189.3) offensively but 3rd defensively (45.8). Likewise, Alabama comes in 14th in rushing ypg when they have the ball (236.8) and 8th when the other guys do (55.0).

It's worth pointing out here that neither of these teams has faced a truly impressive rushing offense all year, and certainly not one as good as they'll play against in this game. (Clemson's vaunted DaviSpiller monster has only managed to get the Tigers up to 65th in the country this year.)

It's also, though, fair to say that the running games could essentially cancel each other out. If Alabama plays to its rankings on run offense and defense, and Georgia plays to its rankings on run offense and defense, both of these teams will pile up impressive but not slobber-inducing ground yardage on the run. It shouldn't shock us to see, for example, 125-150 yards and a touchdown or two on the ground for both teams.

Neither team was quite as good running or stopping the run over the course of the season last year, but at risk of being accused of confusing causality and coincidence, behold the QB numbers from 2007.

No Georgia or Alabama fan needs to be reminded which one of these quarterbacks won the game last year. But to recap anyway: Coffee rushed for no gain on Alabama's first play of overtime. Two incomplete passes later, the Tide kicked a field goal. Matthew Stafford came in and immediately connected on the game-winning TD pass to Mikey Henderson.

You've got to think that, given their choices, Georgia fans would prefer to win with Knowshon's legs but could live with Matt's arm: Stafford is ranked 22nd in the nation and first in the conference in passing efficiency at 152.64. Alabama? John Parker Wilson is 66th in the country and 8th in the conference at 123.43.

Of course, the numbers could be wrong -- they sometimes are -- and Moreno could rush for 175 yards, or Coffee-Ingram could score four times or ...

But if they're right, and if these defenses can at least slow down the ground game, Alabama's chances for winning could come down to John Parker Wilson. How comfortable would Alabama fans be then?

Having recovering from flinging pillows, remote controls and everything else within reach...

1. The season is not over. After the kind of deflating loss suffered last week against Vanderbilt, it would have been easy for the Gamecocks to mail it in. This team didn't do that. Take away a few dumb mental mistakes, and South Carolina might very well have beaten Georgia. That's not to take away from what the spelling-challenged Dawgs did; you only get credit in the win column if you emerge victorious. But there were plenty of opportunities to fold, and South Carolina didn't. They scrapped and fought and forced Georgia to play all-out until the end. That's the sign of a team rebounding from a tough loss and refusing to give in.

2. Awful refereeing. This had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. I don't think the officiating helped either team, though it might have hurt both of them. Sure, every crew is going to miss some calls and throw some bad or ticky-tacky flags. But this performance was abysmal. A delay-of-game flag against Georgia was picked up because of malfunctioning play clocks. Which is fine. The officials started keeping time on the field. Then, on the next South Carolina drive, they went back to working from the play clocks. And were promptly forced to pick up a delay-of-game flag against South Carolina. They waited until the end of timeouts to review plays, called two penalties "offsetting" fouls even though both were against South Carolina, and generally bumbled around like they were high-school refs called in because of a typhoid epidemic among SEC officials. If nothing else, they provided comic relief.

'Should we just admit we don't know what we're doing?'

3. Containing Moreno. South Carolina by no means shut down Knowshon Moreno, but they certainly minimized the damage he did: 20 carries, 79 yards, one score. That was part of a defensive effort that, aside from some sloppy tackling and poor coverage that Matthew Stafford thankfully failed to notice, was generally solid. The Gamecocks' defense held the spelling-challenged Dawgs to 252 yards (and technically outgained them) despite being on the field for more than 35 minutes. Stafford completed 60 percent of his passes but averaged just 5.8 yards a pass. There were few big plays for Georgia. The problem was, there were even fewer for South Carolina.

4. Matthew Stafford Fan Club: Gary Danielson, President. I generally like the CBS crew, but I finally understand what those who despise Danielson are talking about. When he gets on a topic, it can be hard to get him off. When Matthew Stafford did well, it was a chance to talk about how great Matthew Stafford was. When Knowshon Moreno did well, it was a chance to talk about how great Matthew Stafford was. When the Georgia defense did well, it was a chance to talk about how great Matthew Stafford was. Listening to Danielson, it could be hard to remember that there were at least 21 other people on the field at any given time. And it came as a shock to realize that sometimes he was talking about a player that wasn't even on the field.

5. Moe Brown catches some. For once, a ball thrown to Moe Brown was not the kiss of death. In fairness, it hasn't always been Brown's fault that attempted passes to him ended in disaster. But, this week, Brown actually caught some passes -- and to good effect.

So is South Carolina finally figuring out who the playmakers are? Will Brown and Jared Cook (who had a less-than-stellar day) be able to compensate for the loss of Kenny McKinley and then be able to complement him when he returns? Can South Carolina continue to cobble together one good performance from this receiver and another solid showing from that receiver to keep its offense functioning? The questions won't be answered for sure until the Gamecocks start winning again.

GRADE: B-
I hate giving more than a C for a losing effort, but if you had told me before the game that this would be the result, I would have taken it. This was always going to be a tough game for South Carolina -- Georgia is peaking right now, and the Gamecocks are not. While a win would have been nice, this is about as good a loss as you could have.

As always, visit the Gameday Thread during the game with your thoughts. And, if necessary in this game, condolences and prayers.

 
1. Knowshon Moreno. It's not just his leaping ability, which has been concealed by the Communists at ESPN, that should cause you to fear the Georgia running back. It's just that he's good. Real good.

Moreno picked up 104 rushing yards against South Carolina last year, averaging 7.4 ypc, though it should be noted that he failed to score a touchdown. Like the entire Georgia team.

2. Matthew Stafford. Forget all the talk that Stafford is an average quarterback. So far, he's looked solid, though that comes against mediocre opposition.

That pass efficiency rating, by the way, is good for 16th in the country. Will Stafford have a harder time against opposition that's better than Georgia Southern or Central Michigan? Probably. But he also doesn't have any interceptions this year -- which indicates that he likely hasn't done anything stupid with the ball.

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There always are concerns before the first real test of the season. South Carolina represents a significant step up from Georgia Southern and Central Michigan, entirely apart from the fact that it is the Bulldogs’ first road game.

As far as the offensive line is concerned, though, so far, so good. There haven’t been any glaring deficiencies along the offensive front the way there were in 2003 and I have no complaints about Clint Boling and Kiante Tripp at tackle (as in “run it between the”). Of course, Georgia has faced a Division I-AA opponent and a Chippewa squad known for giving up gaudy point totals in road games against major conference programs, so the offensive line hasn’t been tested the way it’s going to be tested on Saturday afternoon.

Ultimately, I’m satisfied with their performance thus far and I have the same concerns I have any time the team is about to play its first conference/road/legitimate game, but my concerns are of the ordinary, rather than the extraordinary, variety.

See the rest after the jump.

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WEEK 1 RESULTS

1. Florida, 308 points (13 first-place votes)

2. Georgia, 304.5 (13)

3. LSU, 265.5 (1)

4. Alabama, 239

5. Auburn, 232

6. South Carolina, 166

7. Mississippi, 140

8. Tennessee, 137

9. Kentucky, 124

10. Vanderbilt, 102

11. Arkansas, 56

12. Mississippi State, 32

Voters explain it all after the jump.

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Can someone please explain to me why Urban doesn't pull Tebow? It's 42-0 with the third quarter almost over, and not is Timmy still in the game, he's still running the ball and taking hits. Georgia, meanwhile, played it smart by taking Moreno out of the game for good after he had some problems with cramps. They left Stafford in, but they're protecting him and letting him work on his game in a safe environment. Why does Florida risk letting Tebow get hurt? Urban's thought processes baffle me sometimes.

While the defense looked very, very good last night, there is one concern I have. Frankly, I think we looked a little slow on the edges as we pursued State's running backs, especially in the first half (although, granted, at one point the defense was spending way too much time on the field due to all the turnovers). Teams are aware that running up the middle against our massive defensive front won't work, so I expect that they, as State did a little bit last night, will try to hit the corners to take advantage of the fact that our linebackers are big and a tad on the slow side.

This could be a major problem against some teams. It wasn't a huge problem against State, as we were able to play to the run given State's almost non-existent passing game. However, a team with a quick back and a more balanced attack (i. e., Georgia if their receivers step up) could do some damage to us.

Hopefully, Ellis Johnson and Co. see this and will plan accordingly. I think that there are ways we can play around this problem, such as using our safeties more to back up our linebackers in run support. This is part of the idea behind the 4-2-5 package, to have a large, speedy defensive backfield that can contain teams that like to spread the field and run to the outside (as Florida does with Percy Harvin). We just need to be ready, because teams will try to take advantage of this. First up: Expect Chris Nickson of Vanderbilt to try to gauge us on the outside.

The one C&F was least looking forward to.

Let's go ahead and get it out there, because there shouldn't be much suspense: I see no way the Gamecocks will win this game. Not in the "all-hope-is-lost, mail-it-in" sense. Of course there are ways that South Carolina can win. But to say I'm pessimistic is putting it wildly. I fully expect to lose this game.

This is a team that outscored its opponents by nearly 12.5 ppg and returns 17 starters. Okay, make that sixteen. They're not just blowing smoke with that national title talk. The spelling-challenged Dawgs are for real.

OFFENSE

Offensive line. Well. How things have changed. The injury to Trinton Sturdivant -- occupying the important left tackle position -- has left the Georgia faithful somewhat crestfallen.

The dim view says this is a serious, serious blight on any championship hopes. Without Sturdivant, we will return only two starters on the O line and one of those will be playing a new position. If Boling moves, every O line spot will have a new face this year. On the line, experience counts and we'll be breaking in someone new everywhere. A potential strength has now turned into a very ominous question mark.

 

An optimistic view says this is bad, but manageable.

Quarterbacks. Sure, QB Matt Stafford has had his issues before. And C&F is not just talking about the color coordination of his kegging companions. Even last year, he only got his completion percentage up to 55.7 percent. But, again, Georgia Sports Blog puts things in perspective.

Richt has coached two Heisman winning QBs and the winningest quarterback college football history. If he says that 62% is the right number for Stafford, then who am I or Matt Hayes/Dennis Dodd/Etc to argue? Stafford is only 1.7 completions per game away from that goal. Again, is that really so far off?

In any case, Stafford is far more experienced than Tommy Beecher, and without seeing more from Beecher, we can't assume that talent will offset the edge in experience. ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Running backs. I'm really looking forward to Mike Davis' rushing this year. I think he can have a solid season. But if you don't see the difference between Davis and Knowshon Moreno -- well, I don't know how to help you. Davis could be good; I'm not thinking he's a Heisman contender. ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Why can't he just run away?

Wide receivers. Mohamed Massaquoi returns for his 19th breakout season after having another ho-hum year with 32 catches for 491 yards and four scores. He was not their leading receiver last year; that honor went to Sean Bailey (39, 615, 5), who does not return. If the offensive line worries work out, this is the weakest part of the offense. Give Kenny McKinley and Co. the edge. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

DEFENSE

Defensive line. Marcus Howard is gone, taking with him his 12 TFL, including 10.5 sacks. But Geno Atkins (14.5 TFL, 7.5 sacks) returns. Jeff Owens and Roderick Battle also aren't too shabby. There's no reason to believe that the Dawgs will do much worse than the 109.9 ypg and 3.3 ypc they allowed last year. South Carolina's line might improve more than Georgia's, but there's also more room for improvement. ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Linebackers. If you like watching good linebackers play, this is a game for you. Georgia's three returning starters accounted for 182 tackles, 21 of those for loss. J-Brink and Eric Norwood don't have the gaudy numbers from last year, largely because of Brinkley's injury. The thinnest of margins here. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

Secondary. The Dawgs picked off the opposing passer 15 times in 2007, and return three starters and another player who got significant playing time. Of course, South Carolina returns all four starters after grabbing 14 interceptions. Still, Georgia is probably just a little bit better. ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

SPECIAL TEAMS

Brandon Coutu is gone, which is good news for anybody that faces Georgia, and he is replaced by true freshman Blair Walsh. The Mayor has tried to turn this into a positive from a strategic standpoint (it's a stretch, methinks), but I don't see anybody saying he won't be a downgrade at K. Succop will likely stay on at kicker, though the idea of someone else doing the punting is getting traction. But Ray Rychleski has some work to do on the return squad. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

COACHING

This has gotten a lot closer in recent years. No doubt, Mark Richt is one of the best in the business now, especially since the emergence of Evil Richt. But Spurrier still has a jump on him when it comes to the number of SEC crowns and national championships. However, those came at another school. You sort it out. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Evil, but good.

RESULT

The Gamecocks can keep this one close if the defense plays the way we know it's capable of playing. But, again, this might be the toughest game on the schedule this year. It's hard to see how this turns out well. LOSS

THE REST OF THEIR SEASON

Again, this is my pick to win it all. So, um, pretty good. Again, if they get through South Carolina and Arizona, they could easily be 7-0 going into the toughest stretch on the schedule: at LSU, Florida (in Jacksonville), at Kentucky and at Auburn. If the Dawgs can manage a 3-1 record there, they can head to the SEC CG with an 11-1 record and, if the loss is to LSU or Auburn, a possible shot at redemption. They won't miss twice.

Going the opposite way this time to add to the countdown effect. Beginning with...

5. OKLAHOMA
I can summarize my biggest reasons for optimism and pessimism with Oklahoma in two words: Sam Bradford. His statistics as a freshman are almost unfathomable: 69.5 percent completion rate, 3,121 yards, 36 TDs, 8 INTs. This in a high-pressure environment where every move you make on the field is subject to some of the most intense scrutiny in college football.

There's also the matter of a sophomore slump. Yes, some of that is made up. But it is also real. Defenses now have a season full of video to look at with Bradford. They will be better prepared this year.

At the other skill positions, RB Allen Patrick is gone. But these are the Soooners, and you know they have a replacement, in this case RB DeMarco Murray, who averaged 6.0 ypc last year and actually had more TDs (13) than Patrick (8). The top receivers in terms of yardage (Juaquin Iglesias, 907) and TDs (Jermaine Gresham, 11) both return.

The lines are deep on both sides of the ball, though the linebackers and secondary could be weaknesses.

Meanwhile, the schedule is tough, but not murderously so. Kansas and Texas Tech come to Norman, as do the toughest nonconference games -- Cincinnati and TCU. Texas is in "neutral" Dallas. The Sooners' road slate? Try at Washington, at Baylor, at Kansas State, at Texas A&M and at Oklahoma State. But there's a trip-up in there somewhere, most likely against the Red Raiders or the Longhorns. And if they get to the Big XII Championship Game undefeated, I believe they will lose. More on that in a moment.

4. SOUTHERN CAL
I tried a thought exercise a couple of weeks ago with a knowledgeable college football friend of mine. "I present to you a team that lost its starting quarterback, leading rusher, leading receiver and four of its five starting offensive linemen. Would you rank them in the Top 5?"

"No," this friend responded.

Of course, once I told him that the team in question was Southern Cal, he backed off almost immediately, saying, "Well, that would be the one exception." But why? What makes any team invulnerable to the laws of football? Isn't this the same idea -- talent and solid coaching uber alles -- that got us into so much trouble with Miami a few years ago?

But what if you can't?

Now, with Mark Sanchez injured, it's easy to see things going south for the Trojans -- at least by their standards. Sure, Sanchez could be back by the game at Virginia; but how much will missing a couple weeks of practice cost him? Some? None?

And the receiving corps is still a question. One of the returning WRs had 50 catches. The top receiver, TE Fred Dvais, is gone. He also had the higest yardage per catch among anyone on the team with 20 or more receptions last year. The Trojans have a lot of talent there, but do they have the high-caliber threats that power a passing game?

Don't get crazy. Of course I'm putting Southern Cal in my Top 5. But there are way too many questions to put them in the title game, or anywhere near it. They can answer those questions and win their way into the Top 3. They need to earn it, though.

3. FLORIDA
Consider this: Florida got 1,659 rushing yards last year from two players whose official positions were not RB (QB TTIIMM TTEEBBOOWW and WR Percy Harvin). So it was understandable that, when coach Urban Meyer told the assembled crowd at SEC Media Days that he was actually pleased with his running backs, you could almost hear a pin drop. Even a crowd in love with TTIIMM TTEEBBOOWW had to listen to this pronouncement: The one missing offensive cog for Florida had been filled.

But the biggest hole in the defense last year remains its biggest hole this year: The secondary isn't just a unit that was bad last year, it's a unit that is practically nonexistent this season after injuries and off-the-field issues. Granted, there are a lot of things to like about the rest of the defense, but watching a secondary get scorched against Michigan to end last year and then banged up before this season even begins leaves one slightly uncomfortable about the Gators' chances.

Still, they have one Heisman winner (Tebow) and another candidate (Harvin, if he heels). The question is not whether the defense will be good enough for Florida to be a good team, but whether the defense will be good enough for Florida to be a great team.

Florida might have an easier path than Georgia, but not by much. They still play Miami, at Tennessee, LSU, Georgia (in Jacksonville) and at Florida State. The only gimme wins are Hawaii, at Vanderbilt and The Citadel.

Almost everyone agrees that the winner of the Florida-Georgia game will play for it all in January. I happen to think the winner will not be the Gators.

2. MISSOURI
There's no need to pretend that Missouri is the perfect contender: the Tigers are not. But QB Chase Daniel and WR Jeremy Maclin are great places to start. Daniel threw for 4,306 yards and a 68.2 percent completion rate last year, tossing 33 TDs against 11 INTs. And he threw in 253 yards and four scores on the ground. (His rushing net was 471, but remember that sacks come off rushing numbers in college.)

Mizzou had the 5th-ranked offense in Division I-A last year, ringing up 490.3 ypg, and the only truly crushing loss is RB Tony Temple, who rushed for 1,039 yards and 12 TDs. If he can be replaced, the Tigers' offense will roll.

A defense that yielded 378.9 ypg returns 10 starters, but that could be as much a recipe for improvement as a cause for concern. They return all three of their top tacklers. Consider this: With last year's defense, Missouri beat every team it faced except Oklahoma. Trim that ypg down by 25-50 (not a proposition beyond the realm of possibility), and the Tigers become one of the most difficult teams to beat in the country.

Missouri has an opening month that's just easy enough to go 4-0 and just tough enough to generate some buzz: match-ups with Illinois, SE Missouri, Nevada and Buffalo. The toughest stretch begins Oct. 4, with consecutive games at Nebraska, against Oklahoma State, at Texas and against Colorado. Get through that, and it should be smooth sailing to Kansas and the Big XII Championship Game (if they make it there).

The Tigers might be a bold pick, but there are dumber choices you could make.

1. GEORGIA
So there it is. It hasn't changed. The winner of the prestigious C&F Preseason No. 1 Ranking is Georgia. It's truly an honor. Previous winners include last year's Texas team, who rode the ranking all the way to the Holiday Bowl, and 2006 Notre Dame, who ended up getting blasted 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl.

Gee, thanks.

So, now that I've given you all the reason you need to pay rapt attention to my No. 1 selection, the case for the spelling-challenged Dawgs:

Sure, sure, there are questions about whether Matt Stafford can have "the season." But if he can raise that completion percentage from 55.7 percent to, say, 58 to 60 percent, and if Knowshon Moreno can come anywhere close to duplicating last year's 1,334 yard, 14 TD campaign, it will be difficult to stop Georgia. Dannell Ellerbe and Asher Allen anchor a tough defense that surrendered 323.2 ypg last year.

As for the schedule, it's difficult, but forgive me if I don't think it is prohibitively so. Georgia should cruise through games against Georgia Southern and Central Michigan. If the spelling-challenged Dawgs navigate the next two games -- at South Carolina (a team that always plays Georgia tough) and at Arizona State -- they shouldn't be challenged again until an Oct. 25 game at LSU. (Yes, I know the Tennessee game is Oct. 11; more on that tomorrow.) Yes, they play Florida (in Jacksonville), at Kentucky and at Auburn before ending the season at Georgia Tech, but how is this more difficult than, say, Florida's 2006 schedule? And if a defeat should come, it will be hard to argue that a one-loss Georgia team will be less deserving than any other one-loss team in the country.

Identify a loss: Florida, the team Georgia drilled last year? An Auburn team, with two new coordinators, that the Bulldogs blasted last year? What have either of those teams done that makes them that much better than UGA?\

South Carolina could pull a second upset, but that's unlikely. Tennessee will be down. Those are the only two losses from last season.

No, Georgia will win 11 or 12 games in the regular season, win the SEC and win the national championship.

Now, excuse me while I go order a few dozen cases of Pepto-Bismol.

After the jump: How the entire ballot would look if cast right now; feel free to criticize, mock or praise, if you feel so inclined.

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A complete wrap later, but a few highlights:

Kenny McKinley makes first team all-SEC at WR, as does J-Brink at LB. South Carolina's second-team players are LB Eric Norwood, DB Captain Munnerlyn and P Ryan Succop.

The closer players to unanimity are WR Percy Harvin (68 votes, of a possible 70) and RB Knowshon Moreno (68).

The rankings are not terribly surprising, but conference writers are not sharing in the Georgia love this year. The East goes Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt. The West is Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Arkansas.

Someone voted for Ole Miss to win the West. This tells you really all you need to know about these polls.