The Gamecocks, following a tough loss to the Volunteers, are traveling to the swamp this Saturday to take on the Gators at noon.
Florida is coming off a victory at Ole Miss where they didn’t look perfect, at least not defensively.
Despite their defensive woes, the Gators are still favored by 18.5 points. Although that spread may look rough at first, it’s still a whole lot better than the opening line where Florida was favored by 22, according to VegasInsider.com.
ESPN’s FPI doesn’t differ too much from the spread either with it giving South Carolina a 10.7% chance of winning.
The over/under is set at 57.
Why was the line set at this number?
A good guess would be because Florida is currently the third best team in the country in the AP poll.
What Vegas probably saw was the 51 piece they dropped on Ole Miss and a South Carolina offense that would most likely not keep up in a shootout.
I do think the line is a tad high, though, because the Gators, home or away, haven’t given the Cocks an 18-point beatdown since 2012.
While being home definitely gives Florida a boost, I think Florida is being overvalued with South Carolina simultaneously being undervalued.
What will have to happen for the Gamecocks to cover?
To cover, USC has to hope the offense from the second half of the Tennessee game carries over.
Subtract the pick six and their defense only gave up 24 to a solid team.
If South Carolina eliminate the big play from Florida’s offense and makes Kyle Trask uncomfortable, this game will be competitive.
What’s the better bet?
I still believe this is a better South Carolina squad than last year’s, and they only lost by 11 when having to play Florida AND the refs.
Having to win by 19 isn’t the easiest thing to accomplish either in the SEC.
Also, who can forget the magic the noon ESPN slot brought this team last year?
This will be a good road test for the Gamecocks, but I still think Florida is more of a fake top three team.
Give me a Gamecock loss somewhere between 7 and 17 points.