If the Pac-10 absorbed the Big 12 in the manner described, I could see the following domino effect…

PAC-16
Pacific Division
Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
California
Stanford
Southern Cal
UCLA

Inland Division
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Texas Tech
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State

BIG 16
Western Division
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas State
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois

Eastern Division
Northwestern
Indiana
Purdue
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Kentucky (yes, Kentucky)

EAST 16
Northern Division
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Syracuse
Rutgers
Connecticut

Atlantic Division
Boston College
Maryland
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest

SOUTHEAST 16
Western Division
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Auburn
Alabama
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

Eastern Division
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Tech
South Carolina
Clemson
Miami
Florida State
South Florida

Are all of these changes likely? No. I’d put my money on the Big Ten trying to grab some Big East schools before it scoops up 4 teams from the Big 12. However, I also don’t see Kansas and Kansas State floating aimlessly without a conference, either.

The question really remains as to what happens with the Big East, ACC, and SEC if the Pac-10 and Big Ten start maneuvering (which causes the collapse of the Big 12).

I could see the basketball schools of the ACC combining with the basketball-heavy Big East and creating a juggernaut for basketball, with the side effect of also creating a ‘feature’ 16-team football conference (the other Big East non-football schools would likely have to form their own basketball conference). Once it started seeing the maneuverings towards four power conferences, I would bet good money Notre Dame finally sees the light and joins a football conference, though possibly with special treatment (perhaps a deal that it can play fewer conference games - or force the Big East to only play 7 conf. games so it can maintain its traditional rivalries for the other 5 games).

The SEC would obviously want to maneuver as well, perhaps by shoring up the support in states it’s already located in, with the obvious side effect of strengthening its football glory (who wouldn’t want Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Miami from the ACC- schools that all make more geographic sense, too). South Florida, a geographic oddity in the Big East, would finally find a home in the Southeast this way as well, with the Tampa market secure. This would force Tennessee and Vandy into the West, which isn’t too crazy.

I think from there, the 4 power 16-team conferences could arrange some sort of +1 Championship that wouldn’t disrupt the college football bowl tradition too much. I also think it’d make sense for conferences to only do 7- or 8-game conference football schedules (in an 8-game case, perhaps a ‘permanent rival’ situation like the SEC does for schedule balancing, or maybe even a game vs. the team that finished in the same divisional position the year before). The regular season would still matter, as we’re still looking at a situation where only 4-8 teams get a shot out of 64 at the national championship, and the slight pressure away from perfection would make for juicier non-conference match-ups to battle-test the contenders.