but I think their ceiling is a bit higher than eight wins. I actually like their offense quite a bit—Murray will be a good QB with time, and the running game and o-line are championship caliber. Their problem offensively last year wasn’t that they couldn’t move the ball; it was that they gave up massive numbers of turnovers, seemingly at the worst times. They would have probably beaten Kentucky by 21 points if not for all the dumb TOs; instead they lost. TOs are obviously still a worry with a freshman QB, but even with that being the case, they should be better in that department this year, especially if the coaching staff does the smart thing and lets the running game shoulder the load. Murray really doesn’t have to be great for them; he just has to be solid. They also have a pretty manageable schedule—no ‘Bama or LSU from the West, get GA Tech at home. The big question mark for them is their defense. It was one of the league’s worst last year, and they lost some major contributors there, including Rennie Curran, who was more or less the lone bright spot last year. Moreover, while I think the new DC will eventually work out for them, he’s installing a much different scheme, and they will suffer from missed assignments and the like early in the season, especially against USC’s relatively seasoned offense and what should be a record breaking Arkansas offense. I fully expect UGA-Ark. to end with a 48-41 score or something like that. After those two games, though, I don’t think they’ll be challenged outside of the Florida and Auburn games. Tennessee usually gives them trouble, but I think they’re really in for it this year. GA Tech I don’t know as much about (don’t really pay as much attention to the ACC outside of Clemson), but I think the Dawgs win. That means that eight wins are almost guaranteed, with more possible if UGA can pick up an upset here and there. They won three of what should be this season’s big four games last year, so it’s not inconceivable that they might do as well or better next year. I could be wrong on all this, of course.

For the record, I still think Florida wins the East again this year with around 10 wins. When I say I think the Gators will be down, I just mean I don’t think they’ll win the national title, not that they won’t be ranked all year and be in the thick for the SEC. I see UGA and USC battling for the second-place spot, with USC hopefully coming out on top.

I can’t remember the last time we beat UGA at home (I’m thinking Holtz’s second year), and Tennessee is a completely different team this year. I figure the Vols of 2010 to be the 2009 Vols that everyone thought they would see. I’ll concede that at this point, Florida is an insta-loss for the ‘Dawgs, but Ga. Tech has been anything but a thorn in the UGA side in recent history. I think 2008 was the first year he Jackets had beaten UGA in quite some time, and unfortunately they were the victims of some serious beating prior to that. At this point, if Florida is the clear number one, I have to think USC and UGA are tied for second in the east. And given USC’s propensity to bungle close games against Georgia, one could be forgiven for giving UGA the slight edge.

That’s one thing we can agree on. :-) But I do think they’ve got the talent to be pretty good this year. Part of what happened to them last year was bad luck, and the law of regression to the mean suggests that their luck will be better this year. Even without luck in the equation, I don’t think Murray can be worse than Joe Cox.

but you’re right: if we don’t win eight games, we’re never going to under Spurrier. This is the most talented, experienced team he’s had here. We have a good coaching staff in place. This is when it has to happen.

But honestly, Garcia could be a 11-game winner this year. He proved his worth last year by not losing us games. That’s not something you could say about a Carolina quarterback for some time. The key will really be our o-line. Did they improve enough under a 1 year coach to become even better this year? Or will Shawn Elliot be starting back at square one?

I guess I should also add that the running game is the other side to that key. If we would just commit to the run we would have a much more effective offense. Here’s to hoping.

Are we sinking or are we progressing slowly? To stick with your metaphor, that experimental raft might get us somewhere hella-fast, but then it might explode before we reach our ultimate goal. A lot of us are using this season as a litmus test to see if Spurrier is actually making progress. I’ve been saying it for a year now, if we don’t win at least 8 games this year it is time to kick Spurrier to the curb. But if we win 8 or more, why would you cut a coach who is building a solid foundation? Spurrier has taken a holistic approach to building program. It’s not as if he was going to waltz in the door and immediately sign the best QB in the nation and start winning championships. And let’s not forget that Garcia will be in just his second year as a starter.

Building programs takes time as well as a little bit of luck. The hardest part about building a winner is getting a great offense and defense in the same year. This might be the first year that we’re actually capable of such a feat.

But I will say, I am with you somewhat. Spurrier’s offenses have yet to even come close to what we expected when we hired him. He’s made it this far on the defense. That’s why this year is so important to showing us if he can actually get things accomplished here. We ought to have one of the top 5 most prolific offenses in the conference (and that’s not even asking a whole lot).